Russia

Currently, Russia sees no reason to come to the negotiating table because it is making – admittedly small – gains on the battlefield and there is no offer that meets their demands,” she told CNBC. “The two sticking points are European military support for Ukraine – the so-called security guarantees and what that actually means – and of course the territorial issue, which Moscow is counting on Ukraine to compromise on.”

The majority of the Russian Central Bank assets [in the EU], of which vast majority are held in Belgium, the big argument has been how can you use those assets in a way which accords with international law and, as the Belgians keep reminding everyone, doesn't expose Belgium to unnecessary legal risk. In short, what I think has finally been agreed, is that these assets will be used as collateral for loans made to Ukraine to support its defence and its general budgetary requirements. And Belgium have been the stick in the mud throughout all of this, and obviously they've now been given sufficient assurances by the EU that they won't be on their own should Russia come knocking, and in the courts too. Throughout the full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the big issue that the EU has faced, particularly on sanctions, is that they have tried to take decisions on a unanimous basis. So of course, one country, like Hungary, sympathetic to the Kremlin, could scupper all the efforts of the other twenty-six. And so trying to find ways to operate on a so-called qualified majority basis has is the holy grail in the EU. And obviously they seem to have found a way by using this emergency power to do that and thus to circumvent any objections Hungary or Slovakia or anyone else might have to the action that's being proposed."

According to a recent report by Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London, "there is good reason to believe that Ukraine can improve the efficacy of its strikes in 2026, [but] the question is the extent to which the combination of sanctions and strikes will create a cashflow problem for the Kremlin".