Dr Richard Connolly

Without security guarantees from the West, Ukraine could find itself vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Analysts say a cease-fire based on the current state of the battlefield would set a dangerous precedent, implying that Europe's borders are up for grabs through military action — something that hasn’t happened since World War II. “This would also have a lot of traction in countries like China, India, and elsewhere,” said Richard Connolly, a Russia expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “They could present that as a strategic defeat not only for Ukraine, but also for the West.”

Graft in the Defense Ministry “is so rife” that the choice of who is arrested will be informed by “internal turf wars,” said Richard Connolly, a specialist on the Russian economy and military at the Royal United Services Institute in London. The arrests are “sending a message in a strategically important sector. But also offering the chance to settle some scores,” he said.

The arrests suggest that “really egregious” corruption in the Defense Ministry will no longer be tolerated, said Richard Connolly, a specialist on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Shortly after his inauguration, Putin replaced Shoigu as defense minister with Andrei Belousov, an economist. Peskov said Russia’s increasing defense budget must fit into the country’s wider economy.