Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Russians are continuing to make the first move in Africa, and the U.S. is continuing to play catch-up," said Samuel Ramani, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense and security think tank. "It's really unclear how Russia will really be able to expand its influence in the long term," he added. "But in the short term, they're creating good will for themselves."

There have been several attacks on Russian targets in Crimea. Ukraine has never claimed them, but Kyiv also has sound military reasons to try to ensure that the peninsula can’t function as a site to launch operations against Ukrainian forces and civilians now and in the future, according to Neil Melvin, the director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. But he cautioned that an assault on Crimea would “likely lead to major casualties for Ukraine,” and “Ukrainian forces would be attacking in a region where significant parts of the civilian population are sympathetic to Russia.” They might actively resist “and turn on groups there loyal to Kyiv, for example elements of the Crimean Tatar community, leading to ethnic cleansing,” he said.

If you pick a place on the map and go hell for leather at it, it assumes an importance of its own,” said Professor Michael Clarke, a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Bakhmut “matters to the Russians because Prigozhin has made it into a target. He’s invested so much in it, and the Wagner Group have invested so much in it that they now cannot be seen to fail.” Ukraine claims that 30,000 of Wagner’s 50,000 troops have deserted or been killed since the start of the war, many around Bakhmut. Their commanders were still hurling them at the Ukrainian positions anyway, Clarke added. “They are losing 60-70 per cent of their troops in every attack and they don’t care.”

The Russians are continuing to make the first move in Africa, and the U.S. is continuing to play catch-up," said Samuel Ramani, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense and security think tank. "It's really unclear how Russia will really be able to expand its influence in the long term," he added. "But in the short term, they're creating good will for themselves."

There have been several attacks on Russian targets in Crimea. Ukraine has never claimed them, but Kyiv also has sound military reasons to try to ensure that the peninsula can’t function as a site to launch operations against Ukrainian forces and civilians now and in the future, according to Neil Melvin, the director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. But he cautioned that an assault on Crimea would “likely lead to major casualties for Ukraine,” and “Ukrainian forces would be attacking in a region where significant parts of the civilian population are sympathetic to Russia.” They might actively resist “and turn on groups there loyal to Kyiv, for example elements of the Crimean Tatar community, leading to ethnic cleansing,” he said.

If you pick a place on the map and go hell for leather at it, it assumes an importance of its own,” said Professor Michael Clarke, a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Bakhmut “matters to the Russians because Prigozhin has made it into a target. He’s invested so much in it, and the Wagner Group have invested so much in it that they now cannot be seen to fail.” Ukraine claims that 30,000 of Wagner’s 50,000 troops have deserted or been killed since the start of the war, many around Bakhmut. Their commanders were still hurling them at the Ukrainian positions anyway, Clarke added. “They are losing 60-70 per cent of their troops in every attack and they don’t care.”