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Ozcelik noted the potentially violent backlash could be tempered by growing frustration, even among Shiite populations, at Iran’s meddling in other countries’ affairs. Over the last five to 10 years, the young generation in Iraq in particular, she said, has shown resistance to Iran’s “overwhelming penetration” of Iraqi domestic affairs, including its security services, judiciary, politics and economy."

We have a less reliable partner in the US, which is explicitly saying it wants to be more unpredictable at the same time as countries like Russia and China, and yes, Iran, are attempting to flex often military or intelligence muscle to get what they want, and the UK and Europe have to reflect on the extent to which they need hard power alongside economic and political heft."

The war in Iran is unlikely to have an impact on Russia’s ability to fight in Ukraine, according to Emily Ferris, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Russia has localized production of Iranian Shahed drones and doesn’t rely on Tehran for supplies any longer, she said.