Dr Neil Melvin

Dr. Neil Melvin, Director of International Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think tank, told Newsweek: "[Prime Minister Pashinyan]'s accusation is the latest in a series of announcements by the authorities in Armenia that they have foiled coup attempts, although there is, as yet, relatively little evidence to support the latest claim." Callum Fraser Research Fellow in Russia and Eurasian Studies at RUSI said that Russia has been engaged in a campaign to fan the flames of discontent in Armenia. According to Fraser, Russia has been pointing to Pashinyan's so-called ineffectiveness following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. Fraser said: "It is not beyond possibility that Russia would simultaneously be trying to actively overthrow the current Armenian government."

But the idea that global threats are interconnected raises military concerns. Neil Melvin, an international security specialist at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, said: “Not only is the US not in a position to fight two major wars simultaneously, but it does not want to be so dragged into helping Ukraine against Russia that it would leave the cupboard bare in the Indo-Pacific.” The argument is not that war is in any sense inevitable, but rather how to best prevent it against a grouping of countries who for now appear focused on self-supporting rearmament. Melvin said: “It is a rather Dr Strangelove world, but this is the discussion we now need to have. What does credible deterrence look like?”

“The world is in the transition,” said Neil Melvin, director of international security at defense think tank the Royal United Services Institute. “There are very broad processes on the way which are reshaping international order,” he added. “It’s a kind of anti-globalization. It’s a growing return to the nation state and against multilateralism.”