East Africa

“While the impact of Russian assistance depends on the content and scope of the support package itself, it is unlikely to have any transformative effect on the conflict,” research fellow Michael Jones of the Royal United Services Institute told Byline Times. “Even if a substantial influx of weaponry and materiel facilitated local breakthroughs across Khartoum or along axes further south, a decisive military victory remains doubtful. […] Russian support would likely simply prolong the conflict; disincentivising the generals from entertaining peace-talks while doing little to substantively redress the overall balance of forces.”

"The Ruen hijacking was likely carried out by Somalia-based pirates," said Simon Rynn, senior research fellow for African Security at the Royal United Services Institute. "The resurgence coincides with the Houthi campaign against Israeli-linked shipping but if there is a connection it would at most be due to counter-piracy actors being distracted."

Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has said talks with Al Shabab are his preferred endgame for peace in the country but without negotiations the militia could be defeated militarily. The Mogadishu government has set a one-year target for expelling the Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabab militant group from the country. "I believe we will defeat Al Shabab militarily," Mr Mohamud said at a Royal United Services Institute meeting in London on Tuesday.