Jack Crawford

Russia has also stepped up efforts to disguise its supply chains, says Jack Crawford, a researcher at UK think-tank the Royal United Services Institute. “Russian defence manufacturers are taking advantage of front companies, third-country transhipment hubs, and loopholes in current sanctions to obtain these components, so any solution requires an all-hands approach in identifying and addressing these weak points,” he said.

Russia withdrew its cooperation from the U.N.’s Black Sea Grain Initiative in July ostensibly on the premise that Ukraine might use civilian vessels to transport Western weaponry into the conflict zone something Russia has been doing so since the early days of the war, as the case of the commercial ship Sparta IV illustrates. Several months into the Ukrainian counteroffensive and after the Wagner mutiny, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative following a second successful Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge. Despite the mainstream narrative about the land-centric nature of the conflict, the Black Sea is one of the most strategic areas of the war.

While the West should be lauded for the speed and breadth of sanctions and export controls imposed on Moscow, compliance offices are still catching up. “Western companies and countries still seem to be finding their footing when it comes to compliance, implementation, and maintenance of these restrictions,” said Jack Crawford, research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). According to Crawford, Western governments lack the capacity to effectively monitor and act against Russian sanctions evasion. This results in delays, not only in dealing with sanctions breaches but also in terms of identifying them in the first place.