Deterrence and Risk in the New Nuclear Age

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine under the shadow of nuclear threats has returned nuclear weapons to the centre of global attention. But the increased relevance of nuclear weapons is the result of longer-term trends, including the revival of great power competition, developments in strategic technologies, and the slow demise of arms control agreements.

Our work seeks to understand the role that nuclear deterrence plays in global security, including Russia’s reliance on its nuclear forces, China’s expanding and diversifying nuclear arsenal, nuclear tensions in South Asia, and North Korea’s rapidly developing programme, as well as developments in nuclear policies and postures in the UK, France and the US. We seek to identify the sources of nuclear risks, alongside potential ways to mitigate them.