Iran

Seizing the island “would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline,” which is essential for the regime, according to Petras Katinas, a research fellow in climate, energy and defense at RUSI, a London-based defense think tank. “Of course, with shipping via the Strait of Hormuz now stopped, they cannot sell oil anyway, but looking ahead, seizure would give the US leverage during negotiations, no matter which regime is in power after the military operation ends,” Katinas told CNBC by email. “Yet, seizure, would require a ground troop operation, which this administration seems hesitant to undertake. At least for now,” he added.

Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence thinktank, said the UK could also be sharing intelligence with the US. “There might be a broader recognised air picture that we could be sharing,” he said. “We’ve got a radar up on the hill at Cyprus that will be looking out over the region. There’s obviously a US carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean. Would we be sharing our radar picture with them and in return receiving information from them? You don’t know what information sharing is going on behind the scenes.”... Savill said the UK’s maritime presence was far smaller today than in previous decades, when Britain had a “heavy presence”. He said the shift had taken place in recent years amid a transition period in the wider armed forces. He said: “The truth is that our presence in the Middle East, which previously was reasonably substantial, has been dwindling for a number of years and was largely maritime. We have a foundation there, we have a set of relationships, we have a set of facilities … but we’re moving from a much lower baseline than we’ve had previously.”

The great gamble of the US and Israel may be that they can bring Iran to a sort of “Goldilocks point” – that is, just right – of near, but not complete, collapse. “In other words,” said Ozcelik, “they are predicated on regime transformation – something short of total state collapse, but still a decisive alteration in how state power is organised, exercised and enforced....Planners may be tempted to look to Syria as a reference point. A popular, non-violent uprising against the regime eventually led to the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad, despite deep external sponsorship of the entrenched dictator.” But, she noted, “between point A and B in Syria lay 13 brutal years that included a multisided civil war and the emergence of armed radical groups”.