Iran

I think now the National Security Strategy, the so-called Donroe doctrine, should be taken quite seriously...I think what the US administration is doing now, probably there's a big change from before, is that whatever comes out on paper, is coming in action as well."

The Tehran regime would benefit from discussions with Moscow to purchase Su-35 advanced air superiority fighters and state-of-the-art air defence systems, as well as technology to significantly increase the accuracy of its ballistic missiles, said Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank... Watching to see if Iran embarks on discussions with Russia has become a priority for the intelligence community. It is thought “those talks are now being pushed with more vigour” within Iran, said Dr Watling, a British military historian. The Su-35 has “a mature and effective” radar system which means that it can detect and track objects and manage multiple engagements... Russia’s defence industry has been ramping up production of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and will be left with an excess if the conflict ends...“They're going to have a glut of production versus their domestic requirements,” said Dr Watling. “The Russians will want to export because their businesses will want to recover their investments.” But more beneficial for Iran’s forces are the improvements Russia has made because of the war...“Russian air defence has now been tested against a lot of western systems and so the software and the radar performance has improved significantly, such that the Russians are achieving a high intercept rate against ATACMS [army tactical missile systems], GMLRS [guided multiple launch rocket systems] and HARM anti-radiation missiles."

As Iran braces for further rounds of conflict with Israel, it will seek ways to control the escalatory path,” said Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East and North Africa security at the Royal United Services Institute, a leading UK think tank. “Regime operatives may deploy asymmetric warfare tactics like cyberattacks, assassination attempts or other subversive means to ‘export’ the resistance against Israel,” Ozcelik said. “The goal is to destabilise, distract and disrupt western capitals while evading direct responsibility for its actions.”