Iran

I think we're feeling a rise in the region that a peace has got to be established, or at least a settlement, so there is not this oscillation back and forth of threats of escalation, and then a tentative stoppage, and then a reescalation. I do see there is a difference this time around. Whether this could be something that leads to a deal - that is quite difficult...the unpredictability of President Trump still determines where this will go."

It is easier for the Iranians to look threatening in terms of trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz than it is for the Americans to give everybody confidence that it is now safe to travel through. It sounds like they're looking for some kind of knockout blow or some way of inflicting pain on the Iranians that will cause them to back down and I think the problem is is that they're finding that the Iranians, because they're backed in a corner, have a high pain threshold even though this has been devastating for their capabilities so the options aren't good. They might have to accept some kind of negotiation on terms that frankly look very unsatisfactory."

The Gaza deal can't be considered in isolation so this is just one piece of a regional security tapestry so we have to look at what this means for Iran and other Iran proxies in the region but if this does work out, and Israel agrees and plays ball, this strengthens the US and allies and significantly weakens Iran."