Dr Burcu Ozcelik

“There are no easy or immediate answers to what kind of Syria will emerge in the post-Assad future,” said Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow in middle east security at RUSI.

“Iran proxies have been substantially degraded, and this has an unquestionable impact,” on the Assad regime’s ground forces, said Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert with the Royal United Services Institute thinktank. But she also reflected that Iran itself, which has come off worse in its direct military exchanges with Israel, may also be more cautious to step in or allow its proxies to step in as well. “The real challenge to Syrian regime forces is the lack of willingness so far by Iran as the patron of Hezbollah and Russia to deploy military assets and air power to bail out the regime as it did before,” she added. An overt intervention from Iran in support of Assad may also provoke further bombing by Israel.

When protests against decades of rule by the Assad family were crushed by Syrian government forces in the spring of 2011, opposition groups took up arms and the country descended into civil war. The conflict drew in Syria’s Kurds, jihadi groups including Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and the international community. 13 years on President Assad controls around two thirds of the country, but northern Syria remains out of the regime's grip and is highly volatile. Internal divisions, international influences and a worsening humanitarian situation may be about to further destabilise the region, with potentially serious consequences for Syria and the world. So, in this episode of The Inquiry, we’re asking ‘What’s the future for Syria’s divided north?’ Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, joined the programme.