Dr Burcu Ozcelik comments on Iran's potential direct talks with the US on its nuclear programme

The Middle East is undergoing a major transformation: Some regional actors are driving the change, and others are trying to survive. Iran seeks survival but wants to be seen as leading. Tehran's negotiation stance is now weaker than when the JCPOA was agreed, with shifting priorities and fewer options.

Iran's highly coveted 'axis of resistance', or its forward defence doctrine, which relies on asymmetric military capabilities exercised through a network of regional proxies has been significantly degraded since Israel's multi-front operations post-October 7. But Iran retains conventional military capabilities, notably its ballistic missile programme and naval operability, and the ability to disrupt relative stability in the Gulf, meaning that Iran may be down but not out of the regional power play.

Regional dynamics have also shifted dramatically since 2015: the Saudi-Iran rapprochement was a watershed moment and opened up new diplomatic avenues. Oman, through delicate diplomacy, emerged as a pivotal player in that dynamic. Agreeing to talks with the US (the delicate optics of direct or indirect format aside) reflect Iran’s reckoning with this reality. The US-Iran talks, with possible intermediaries to provide facilitation during sharply contentious points, will be complicated. There is no quick and easy deal to be had, and there are diplomacy sceptics on all sides that would rather see negotiations fail. Key to any sustainable agreement will be clear, verifiable parameters. A phased and conditional sanctions relief approach where Iran concedes to verification mechanisms on its nuclear programme in exchange for incremental US sanctions relief may offer a 'win-win'.