United States

This would need to be a multinational force to have the kind of enduring presence [in the Strait]. The interesting bit is the use here of various types of uncrewed vessels, drones, for a combination of sensing, for situational awareness - seeing what is out there, and potentially clearing mines...A lot of this technology is untested though. The Royal Navy is having to look at different ways of achieving what it tries to do because it is shrinking in terms of ships and people."

Iran is important [to China], it's a key component of the Belt and Road, Iran is a strategic partner in the Gulf, and the opening of the Gulf is quite important not only for Chinese national energy security but also for other components such as helium that China uses for microchip production. Having said that, the United States is also in dire need to limit this kind of standoff. It costs a lot of money to keep the war machine in that region. Therefore, if Trump and Xi find a solution to open Hormuz in a way that lets Iran find also a kind of flexible engagement, letting Chinese and American cargo ships move in the Gulf, that can show that Trump made a good deal and that Xi Jinping is portraying China as a stabilising factor in the world."

The balance has tipped in favour of Ukraine. And this, I think, is just another of the pressures on Putin. He's got to demonstrate to people in Moscow why it's worth continuing the war and that they are going to ultimately win. And he said, at the parade, drawing a comparison with victory in the Great Patriotic War, that we are going to win. But I think there is scepticism in Russia...the cutting off of the internet and the telegram channel has caused a lot of criticism in Moscow and St Petersburg. So that's another source of criticism that's going. We mustn't catastrophize this, this isn't necessarily the beginning of the end, but if Ukraine suffered its worst moment over the winter, I think Russia is suffering its worst moment just about now."