Taiwan

Philip Shetler-Jones, senior research fellow of Indo-Pacific security at the Royal United Services Institute, said, "There is no basis in international law for Beijing's protest against the free passage of ships through the Taiwan Strait." He continued, "Claims that the strait is an internal waterway are part of the [Chinese] Communist Party's information campaign to convince the outside world that Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China, which is not the case," he said.

“Technologically, the world is very dependent on Taiwanese chips and semiconductors,” the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) associate fellow Dr Sari Arho Havrén told i. “All this could, in return, embolden Russia in Europe, and not only would Europe suffer from production problems, but the world focus would turn into the Indo-Pacific, which creates vacuums that other hostile powers can take advantage of.”

Taiwan and China are also deeply economically intertwined. Last year, 35% of the island’s exports went to the Chinese mainland, most of which were integrated circuits, solar cells and electronic components, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs. Imports from the mainland accounted for 20% of the island’s total imports in the same year. Between 1991 and 2022, Taiwanese companies invested a total of $203 billion in the mainland, according to Taiwan government statistics, creating millions of jobs in China. Additionally, quarantines can push populations to rally with the government, rather than rise up against it, says Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Historical evidence shows that even severe blockades have limited coercive value, and a limited quarantine might result in a rally around the flag effect,” he says.