China

A prolonged period of turmoil and insecurity in the Middle East will disrupt other regions of importance for China," says Philip Shetler-Jones from the Royal United Services Institute. "African economies, for instance, have been the beneficiary of substantial and steady flows of Gulf capital. If the investment tide goes out, this risks wider instability that undermines the sustainability of China's broader and longer-term interests."

Having Putin side-by-side with Xi signals China's strength to audiences across the Global South, analysts say. “It signals Beijing’s emergence as a pole of stability against Western pressure,” said Alessandro Arduino, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute....“China has emerged as Russia’s indispensable economic backstop: absorbing energy exports, supplying dual-use goods and providing diplomatic cover, all while calibrating its support to avoid triggering secondary sanctions or crossing the red line of direct military assistance...For the first time in the modern era, Beijing is unmistakably ‘the big brother’ marking a historic inversion in the relationship with Moscow," Arduino said."

Nuclear ambitions in China, Russia, North Korea and Iran – all states hostile to the West, with the first three located in relative proximity – may mean that the US seeks to divert resources to counter aggression, leaving Europe exposed. That “could create uncertainties over the ability of US strategic forces to simultaneously deter aggression in two theatres,” wrote Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow specialising in nuclear proliferation and deterrence at Rusi, a UK defence think tank, in a recent report. “Growing US requirements to deter both China and Russia raise concerns over just how much the US nuclear umbrella can stretch in terms of capabilities before it starts to leak.”