China

For now, Europe’s best move would be to develop its advanced non-nuclear weapons arsenal, which can threaten valuable targets inside Russia and blunt an invasion, according to Darya Dolzikova, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute. “I don’t see a pan-European nuclear deterrent,” said Dolzikova, author of a recent report on nuclear deterrence in Europe. “I don’t think that’s feasible. What I do think there is room to do is ask, ‘How do the French and the British think about their own domestic deterrents, and how does that affect European security?’” France and the UK have about 400 deployed warheads between them. That compares with America’s 1,670, a number that could grow following the expiration this month of the New START treaty between the US and Russia that controlled nuclear arms. Despite their smaller arsenal, the French and British warheads have enough explosive power to destroy hundreds of cities, according to Dolzikova. Russia, by contrast, is more nimble, its vast arsenal including smaller weapons giving it more options for targets and how it responds in any escalation.

I think [Prime Minister Takaichi] she is quite determined about Japan's security and defence, but she has no aggressive intentions regarding China and Taiwan. But I think you're right about having unsettled Beijing because...Prime Minister Takaichi, even before she reached this level, had expressed opinions about Japan's history which don't have the same sort of regret and shame and reflections on Japanese aggression as they would like to hear in Beijing, and that's something that they expect. So that was one thing. The comments she made about Japan being affected by a potential conflict between China and the US over Taiwan added to that and quickly spiralled into a kind of quite virulent attack on her and on the idea of Japanese militarism or remilitarisation. So yes, they are unsettled. And this election result, where despite the people you were interviewing in Japan, obviously a lot of the electorates in Japan did support her leadership. So I think that that must get across in Beijing a message that Prime Minister Takaichi is not unrepresentative in having these strong feelings about Japan."

Darya Dolzikova, a senior Research Fellow with the UK-based RUSI's Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, said the expiration of New Start was "concerning, because there are drivers on both sides to expand their strategic capabilities". Dolzikova said that for Russia "there appears to be some concerns about their ability to penetrate US air defences". This has only increased with Trump's plans to build a "Golden Dome" to protect North America from long-range weapons. But Russia has also been developing new weapons designed to overcome air defences. They include Poseidon - a new intercontinental, nuclear armed and nuclear powered undersea autonomous torpedo, and also Burevestnik – a nuclear armed and powered cruise missile. The US, Russia and China are all developing long-range hypersonic missiles which can manoeuvre at speeds of more than 4,000 mph (6,437kmh), and are much harder to shoot down. Dolzikova said those expanding military capabilities would "only make it harder" to reach a new arms control treaty. This is along with what she called the "growing salience of nuclear weapons". More, not fewer, countries appear to want them as a deterrent.