China

Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at Rusi, said if China were to invade Taiwan, the Taiwanese would make use of massed cheap drones as part of what he described as a “porcupine defence”...“If they [Chinese forces] can get ashore in large numbers, that hugely swings their chances of mounting a successful invasion. An asymmetric approach could be to conduct a long guerrilla campaign once they were ashore, rather than try to hold off the initial invasion. But that would be betting on the ability to bleed occupying forces and to outlast a Chinese political commitment to retain control,” he said.

A prolonged period of turmoil and insecurity in the Middle East will disrupt other regions of importance for China," says Philip Shetler-Jones from the Royal United Services Institute. "African economies, for instance, have been the beneficiary of substantial and steady flows of Gulf capital. If the investment tide goes out, this risks wider instability that undermines the sustainability of China's broader and longer-term interests."

Having Putin side-by-side with Xi signals China's strength to audiences across the Global South, analysts say. “It signals Beijing’s emergence as a pole of stability against Western pressure,” said Alessandro Arduino, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute....“China has emerged as Russia’s indispensable economic backstop: absorbing energy exports, supplying dual-use goods and providing diplomatic cover, all while calibrating its support to avoid triggering secondary sanctions or crossing the red line of direct military assistance...For the first time in the modern era, Beijing is unmistakably ‘the big brother’ marking a historic inversion in the relationship with Moscow," Arduino said."