Turkey’s Strategic Balancing Efforts Amid the US–China AI Confrontation

The rivalry between the US and China has taken a new form, centering on artificial intelligence (AI), a pivotal technology for future influence. President Joe Biden’s National Security Memorandum (NSM) on AI underscores the urgency of this competition, positioning the US as a leader in safe, secure and trustworthy AI development. At the same time, nations like Turkey find themselves navigating this complex landscape, balancing relations with both superpowers as they carve out their own roles in the global technology race.

The Shift to AI as a National Security Imperative

AI has become essential for US national security, reshaping how governments gather intelligence, defend against threats and project power. The Biden administration’s NSM emphasises the importance of advancing AI capabilities to maintain a competitive edge over the US’s rivals.

Central to the US strategy is a focus on talent and innovation. Initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act reflect the government’s commitment to strengthening semiconductor manufacturing, crucial for advanced AI systems. Securing supply chains and maintaining control over AI hardware has become critical to sustaining the US edge. This supply chain focus highlights the need for hardware sovereignty in the AI race.

The NSM also stresses the need for robust cybersecurity and counterintelligence to protect US technological assets from espionage, especially as they relate to AI innovations. Advanced AI technologies are valuable targets, and US intelligence and security agencies are directed to develop countermeasures, particularly against the US’s rivals’ efforts to access proprietary information. By integrating cybersecurity protocols, the US aims to safeguard its innovations from being exploited by adversaries.

Forging a Techno-Political Alliance of Democratic Nations

The US is rallying a techno-political alliance of democratic nations to counterbalance China’s expanding influence. This alliance aims to set global AI standards that emphasise democratic values and human rights. The US has played a key role in promoting responsible AI, notably through the G7’s international Code of Conduct on AI, and has participated in the Bletchley and Seoul AI summits. The recent UN General Assembly resolution on AI underscores a collective effort to establish rights-respecting frameworks for AI development.

Domestically, the NSM designates the AI Safety Institute as a key liaison, facilitating collaboration between government agencies, private sector innovators and the intelligence community. The AI Safety Institute aims to streamline efforts, encourage diverse expertise and address risks associated with AI development. Furthermore, the launch of the National AI Research Resource pilot highlights the Biden administration’s commitment to democratising AI innovation by making resources available to a broader pool of researchers, thus reducing dependency on large tech corporations.

A Comprehensive AI Governance Framework

A cornerstone of the US strategy is the establishment of a comprehensive AI governance framework that embodies rigorous risk management, transparency and accountability measures. This framework is designed to ensure that AI applications within the realm of national security not only serve strategic interests, but also do so in alignment with democratic principles and fundamental human rights. By embedding these values, the framework seeks to create a structured approach that mitigates potential risks associated with AI misuse – such as bias, discrimination and privacy infringement – which could have harmful consequences.

This governance model also promotes stringent oversight mechanisms to assess and address the ethical implications of AI technologies as they evolve, thereby reinforcing public trust in AI’s role in national security. Through frequent evaluations and transparent reporting, the framework aims to keep governmental AI initiatives both ethically grounded and technologically effective. It also sets clear accountability standards for agencies and private sector partners, establishing a checks-and-balances system to guard against the overreach or misuse of AI-enabled tools.

The US aims to showcase how advanced technology, when responsibly governed, can enhance national security without compromising the values that underpin a democratic society. This framework positions the US as a leader in setting global norms for ethical AI governance, differentiating it from models that prioritise control over civil liberties.

Despite the comprehensive nature of the US strategy, challenges remain in securing a decisive lead over China in AI. The rapidly changing techno-political landscape presents difficulties for any fixed approach. As the US strives to rally allies around a shared agenda, balancing domestic policies with international standards may prove challenging.

Turkey’s Position in the Techno-Political Rivalry

Turkey, a NATO ally of the US, approaches this techno-political rivalry with a more measured strategy. Turkey’s position in this rivalry is shaped by a balancing act between aligning with Western allies and preserving strategic relations with China. This dual approach reflects Turkey’s broader foreign policy, where it seeks autonomy by avoiding a hard alignment with either side, particularly in technology and economic investments. The country emphasises a policy of strategic autonomy, striving to avoid exclusive reliance on either the US or China. By this approach, Turkey tries to leverage opportunities from both powers, balancing NATO obligations and economic benefits from China. The country’s deepening relationships with both powers illustrate a desire to engage without full alignment.

Turkey’s participation in infrastructure projects signals its openness to diversification of investments. Turkey is also exploring technological partnerships with China, particularly in areas like 5G, though these are limited by security concerns and Western pressure. However, it is clear that the country is serious about advancing in critical technologies. Turkey’s minister of transport and infrastructure announced in March 2024 that the country will transition to 5G in 2026.

Turkey’s NATO membership and longstanding defence ties with the US underscore a strong Western alignment in security matters. Turkey’s defence technology, particularly in drones, is being closely coordinated with NATO standards. It should be noted that Turkey's defence firm Baykar, which produces the TB2 drone, has been aligning its technology with NATO standards, developing a relationship strategy aligned with NATO’s vision. At the same time, Turkey is cautious about not becoming overly dependent on any single country for critical technology.

Turkey is increasingly focusing on building its own technological capabilities to reduce reliance on foreign technology. Investments in AI, defence technology and cyber capabilities are a priority, with the goal of bolstering Turkey’s national resilience and gaining it a level of independence in the global tech race. Turkey’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy, launched in 2021, aims to make Turkey one of the top 20 countries in international AI indexes, focusing on education, research and development in AI technologies.

Turkey aspires to be a regional tech leader, with initiatives to develop homegrown AI applications and digital infrastructure. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ 2024-2028 Strategic Plan includes objectives such as developing a joint large language model with Turkic States, and notably, digitalisation is listed among its core values. Through the Turkic Council and other regional bodies, Turkey seeks to establish itself as a hub for technology in Eurasia. It should be stated that the same strategic document indicates that Turkey is open for further international collaboration in AI regulations. The country positions itself as a mediator that could benefit from relationships with both Eastern and Western powers.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Techno-Political Rivalry

The Biden administration’s AI-focused NSM marks a pivotal moment in the US-China rivalry on AI. Through a coalition of like-minded nations, the US aims to not only secure technological leadership, but also establish ethical foundations for AI. As this rivalry intensifies, the US commitment to a rights-respecting, democratic approach to AI development is increasingly resonating with allies. The outcome of this strategy remains to be seen, but the US has set its sights on leading with a vision that blends technological advancement with democratic resilience, a course that could define the next era of global power.

In this landscape, Turkey’s role reflects a careful balancing act. By nurturing ties with both the US and China and focusing on developing its own technological capabilities, Turkey seeks to preserve strategic autonomy and flexibility. For the time being, this approach enables Turkey to strengthen its tech sector and secure regional influence, positioning itself as a versatile player without fully aligning with either the US or China’s AI ecosystems. However, the techno-political rivalry between the US and China, including in the field of AI, seems set to intensify even further. Will Turkey eventually have to make a choice? Only time will tell.

© Alp Cenk Arslan, 2024, published by RUSI with permission of the author

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