What could a second Trump presidency mean for foreign affairs?

Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow at the Rusi defence and security think tank, said Middle Eastern states will be “bracing” to see how Mr Trump’s campaign pledge to end wars will play out on the ground in Gaza and Lebanon and amid the Israel-Iran military stand-off. “The horrific October 7 Hamas attacks altered the regional status quo, meaning this is not the Middle East that Trump left four years ago,” she said. “Topping a complex list of unknowns is how much leverage Trump will have over Netanyahu, and the extent to which he will manifest that leverage to end Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, contain regional conflict spillover, and deliver sustainable political settlements.”