The decapitation of Hezbollah leaves Iran weighing its options

For now, Iran now has few good options to re-establish deterrence. But, according to Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Rusi defence thinktank, the worst course of action would be a direct attack on Israel. “While this may salvage Iran’s credibility with its core base inside Iran and across its axis, the risk is that, like its attack on 13 April in response to the attack on its consulate in Damascus, the barrage of missiles will be intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome system and by the US and its Arab allies. This would further erode Iran’s projection of military strength and cause a legitimacy crisis inside Iran,” she wrote.