For all the Sturm und Drang over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, neither side has answered the crucial question the Trump administration faces if it abrogates the deal: ‘And then what?’
Over the last decade, the US and EU have constructed a complex network of sanctions in response to Iran’s nuclear programme, ensuring the near-total isolation of Iran from global markets. On ‘implementation day’, this network starts to be disassembled and reintegration begin.
Iran’s centres of power appear divided on the fate of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. As talks on a political solution to the Syrian crisis reconvene tomorrow in Vienna, these differences are likely to become more apparent.