For all the Sturm und Drang over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, neither side has answered the crucial question the Trump administration faces if it abrogates the deal: ‘And then what?’
As the EU–Turkey deal comes into effect, the likely result will be the emergence of new migratory routes, or the reactivation of older ones, such as the West African Route, which connects various countries to the Spanish Canary Islands.
Putin’s surprise withdrawal is not only to leverage Assad into constructive peace talks. It is also about creating more options for Russia to influence the direction of the military conflict and political transition as things change both in Russia and on the ground.
Iran’s parliament and the Assembly of Experts generally exercise little control over Tehran’s foreign policy. Nonetheless, the results of the recent election are likely to have an indirect impact on the country’s policies in this area, both in the short and long term.