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In an age of hybrid and greyzone warfare our defence cannot exist solely of armed forces. Governments, business and civil society should also work together to strengthen our resilience against existing and emerging threats. Together with the armed forces’ capabilities, such societal resilience can function as a crucial deterrent.
Countries in Europe and North America have, over generations, developed impressive deterrence by means of military punishment. But the emergence of hybrid warfare, where threats and attacks are directed at the private sector and civil society at large, puts countries a situation where deterrence by military punishment is not enough. What is needed, then, is modern deterrence: a combination of traditional military deterrence by military punishment and deterrence by societal resilience.
During the Cold War, Scandinavian countries developed the concept of Total Defence, in effect an early version of modern deterrence. Today those countries, and to some extent the Baltic states, maintain partial versions of total defence. No country has, however, developed a complete modern deterrence model. It is imperative that we do so.
The Modern Deterrence project’s research -- informed by practitioners – aims to generate a new body of knowledge that will be vital to governments, the private sector and civil society. It also serves as hub where practitioners from these sectors exchange best practices and new ideas.
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Contacts
Preparing for Greyzone Threats to the Energy Sector
Occasional Papers, 18 November 2020
Daniel Jonsson
This Occasional Paper analyses state-initiated non-military threats to energy supplies and offers policy recommendations to address vulnerabilities.
Tags: Modern Deterrence, National Security, Resilience
The Case for Joint Military–Industry Greyzone Exercises
Briefing Papers, 28 September 2020
Elisabeth Braw
This Briefing Paper suggests that joint military–industry exercises can help build resilience against the increasing number of greyzone attacks that liberal democracies are facing.
Tags: Military Sciences, Modern Deterrence, UK, National Security, Resilience
"To be sure, Western firms collect information about our internet use all the time (that’s what cookies are for). The difference is that they don’t, usually, feed it to oppressive governments.
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No one cares about your baby pictures. Except China.
In The News, 24 September 2020 Tags: Modern Deterrence
On the Cusp: General Riho Terras
Multimedia, 22 September 2020
What can other countries learn from Estonia's defence against greyzone aggression? How to best involve youth in national security? And what was it like to do more than three years' military service in the Soviet Navy? In the season finale, Elisabeth Braw speaks with General Riho Terras, until 2018 Estonia's chief of defence and now a member of the European Parliament.
Tags: Modern Deterrence
State Cyberspace Operations: Proposing a Cyber Response Framework
Occasional Papers, 8 September 2020
Gary D Brown
Using illustrative case studies, this paper proposes a response framework for states to avoid actions in cyberspace that would unintentionally engage them in armed conflict.
Tags: Cyber, Modern Deterrence, Intelligence
On the Cusp: Professor Henry Farrell and Professor Abraham Newman
Multimedia, 8 September 2020
Globalisation is the new frontline of great-power competition. What does it mean China has cornered the market for rare earth processing (think smartphones and electric car batteries)? What about global choke points that can be exploited by countries wishing to harm each other? Elisabeth Braw discusses with professors Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman.
Tags: Modern DeterrencePages
Northern Composure: Initial Observations from Sweden’s Total Defence 2020 Exercise
Commentary, 3 September 2020Gerhard Wheeler CBE
Sweden’s approach to national resilience is being tested again. The lessons such exercises yield have a wider applicability to all democracies
Modern Deterrence, Resilience
How Latvia Accomplishes Comprehensive Defence
Commentary, 25 June 2020Artis Pabriks
Can all crises and conflicts be predicted and fully averted? Unfortunately, no. Can we be better prepared for crises and conflicts that may arise? Indeed, we can.
Modern Deterrence, Civil–Military Relations, Domestic Security, Resilience
Britain Beyond the Pandemic: A Resilient Legal Framework
Commentary, 7 April 2020Ruth Smeeth
The legal framework empowering the British government in fighting the current pandemic needs to be made more predictable and robust.
Modern Deterrence, Coronavirus, UK, Domestic Security, Law and Ethics
The Coronavirus Epidemic and Panic Buying: Follow the East German Example
Commentary, 23 March 2020Elisabeth Braw
Of society and resilience: the scarcities of the past, and the panic buying of today.
Military Sciences, Modern Deterrence, Coronavirus, Germany, UK, Europe
Europe’s Coronavirus Response: Selfish Member States and Active Institutions
Commentary, 18 March 2020Elisabeth Braw
EU member states displayed little solidarity in the current crisis, but EU institutions fared better.
Military Sciences, Modern Deterrence, Coronavirus, EuropePages
On the Cusp: General Riho Terras
Multimedia, 22 September 2020What can other countries learn from Estonia's defence against greyzone aggression? How to best involve youth in national security? And what was it like to do more than three years' military service...
Tags: Modern Deterrence
On the Cusp: Professor Henry Farrell and Professor Abraham Newman
Multimedia, 8 September 2020Globalisation is the new frontline of great-power competition. What does it mean China has cornered the market for rare earth processing (think smartphones and electric car batteries)? What about...
Tags: Modern Deterrence
On the Cusp: Nina Hellum
Multimedia, 27 August 2020Even with competitive national service, motivating soldiers is important. Elisabeth Braw discusses what motivates conscripts during their service with Nina Hellum, a social anthropologist at the...
Tags: Modern Deterrence
Countering Interference at the Next US Election
Multimedia, 12 August 2020Elisabeth Braw, head of RUSI's Modern Deterrence project, talks about efforts to counter foreign interference at the next US Election.
Tags: Modern Deterrence, United States, Americas, Information
On the Cusp: Dr Markus Jakobsson
Multimedia, 11 August 2020Ever heard the term SIM-jacking? If not, you should familiarise yourself with this growing form of cyber aggression. Victims include Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey. In this episode of On the Cusp, Elisabeth...
Tags: Modern DeterrencePages
Preparing for Greyzone Threats to the Energy Sector
Occasional Papers, 18 November 2020Daniel Jonsson
This Occasional Paper analyses state-initiated non-military threats to energy supplies and offers policy recommendations to address vulnerabilities.
Modern Deterrence, Occasional Papers, National Security, Resilience
The Case for Joint Military–Industry Greyzone Exercises
Briefing Papers, 28 September 2020Elisabeth Braw
This Briefing Paper suggests that joint military–industry exercises can help build resilience against the increasing number of greyzone attacks that liberal democracies are facing.
Military Sciences, Modern Deterrence, Briefing Papers, UK, National Security, Resilience
State Cyberspace Operations: Proposing a Cyber Response Framework
Occasional Papers, 8 September 2020Gary D Brown
Using illustrative case studies, this paper proposes a response framework for states to avoid actions in cyberspace that would unintentionally engage them in armed conflict.
Cyber, Modern Deterrence, Occasional Papers, Intelligence
Insurance Gaps: A Growing Vulnerability for National Security
RUSI Newsbrief, 19 June 2020Hélène Galy and James Vickers
Insurance protection gaps are fast becoming a high-priority issue for national and international security, not just one that captures headlines in the aftermath of natural catastrophes.
Modern Deterrence, RUSI Newsbrief, Coronavirus, Domestic Security, Resilience
Revamping Crisis Resilience and Security in the Post-Pandemic World
Other Publications, 18 June 2020Elisabeth Braw
Reflections and analysis on the 2020 'Revamping Crisis Resilience and Security in the Post-Pandemic World' conference.
Military Sciences, Modern Deterrence, Other Publications, ResiliencePages
Building Stronger Societies: Involving Teenagers in National Security
Events, 29 October 2020As part of RUSI’s Building Stronger Societies webinar series, Elisabeth Braw discusses how to involve teenagers in national security with Christina Malm, Director-General of the Swedish Defence...
Modern Deterrence
Predicting Environmental Disasters
Events, 5 October 2020At this event, natural hazards expert Matt Foote and regulatory lawyer Caroline Dawson discusses how to predict environmental disasters, a matter that is becoming increasingly vital to both...
Modern Deterrence
Can National Security be Taught?
Events, 30 September 2020What other countries can learn from Latvia’s pioneering national security curriculum
Modern Deterrence
Bridging the Innovation Gap: How to Improve Cooperation Between Tech Startups and the National Security Community
Events, 22 September 2020At this event chaired by Sir Michael Fallon, NATO Assistant Secretary-General Giedrimas Jeglinskas, Isar Aerospace Co-Founder and CEO Daniel Metzler and Dr Staffan Truvé, Co-Founder and CTO, Recorded...
Military Sciences, Modern Deterrence
Building Stronger Societies Webinar Series: Organising Ourselves for the Next Crisis
Events, 16 September 2020As part of RUSI’s Building Stronger Societies webinar series, Craig Fugate, former Administrator of the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Elisabeth Braw, Senior Research Fellow in...
Modern DeterrencePages
"To be sure, Western firms collect information about our internet use all the time (that’s what cookies are for). The difference is that they don’t, usually, feed it to oppressive governments. "
No one cares about your baby pictures. Except China.
In The News, 24 September 2020 Tags: Modern Deterrence
"China’s duplicitous behavior during the pandemic made governments and citizens alike realize that more circumspection was needed, and now several Western governments are trying to protect their firms from takeovers by the firms of unfriendly countries. "
Chinese Acquisitions of Western Firms Threaten National Security
In The News, 24 August 2020 Tags: Modern Deterrence
"'If you want to simulate societal meltdown as a result of coronavirus, it’s not enough to have the software, you have to have the details on what would happen'"
Covid-19 crisis accelerates UK military’s push into virtual war gaming
In The News, 19 August 2020 Tags: Modern Deterrence
"Germany is launching a new national service program for youth. The goal is not only to keep the country safe, but help create a stronger sense of community. With Elisabeth Braw. "
German Youth Asked to Serve the Nation
In The News, 11 August 2020 Tags: Military Sciences, Modern Deterrence
"But even if there is a revival of national service, virtually no country today needs tens of thousands of new conscripts in its armed forces every year. (That’s why Norway, Sweden, and Lithuania, as well as Denmark, operate Ivy League-style competitive selection processes.) Israel, with its near-universal mandatory military service for all Israelis, is an exception."
Ask What You Can Do for Your Country
In The News, 4 August 2020 Tags: Modern Deterrence
The Budding Alliance Between Lockdown Critics and the Far-Right in Germany
FCAS: Is the Franco-German-Spanish Combat Air Programme Really in Trouble?
Getting the Partnership Right