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In an age of hybrid and greyzone warfare our defence cannot exist solely of armed forces. Governments, business and civil society should also work together to strengthen our resilience against existing and emerging threats. Together with the armed forces’ capabilities, such societal resilience can function as a crucial deterrent.
Countries in Europe and North America have, over generations, developed impressive deterrence by means of military punishment. But the emergence of hybrid warfare, where threats and attacks are directed at the private sector and civil society at large, puts countries a situation where deterrence by military punishment is not enough. What is needed, then, is modern deterrence: a combination of traditional military deterrence by military punishment and deterrence by societal resilience.
During the Cold War, Scandinavian countries developed the concept of Total Defence, in effect an early version of modern deterrence. Today those countries, and to some extent the Baltic states, maintain partial versions of total defence. No country has, however, developed a complete modern deterrence model. It is imperative that we do so.
The Modern Deterrence project’s research -- informed by practitioners – aims to generate a new body of knowledge that will be vital to governments, the private sector and civil society. It also serves as hub where practitioners from these sectors exchange best practices and new ideas.
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Contacts
"'If the West wants to keep aggressive competitors at bay, its societies have to face them with a united front—one that occasionally includes journalists.'
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Loose Lips Sink Democracies?
In The News, 19 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence
From Schools to Total Defence Exercises: Best Practices in Greyzone Deterrence
RUSI Newsbrief, 15 November 2019
Elisabeth Braw
How NATO member states can develop societal resilience to combat modern threats.
Tags: Modern Deterrence, NATO, Resilience
"Who is supposed to protect us against it? The government, even if it wanted to hold this collective umbrella over the entire population, wouldn't be able to do that. Social media networks clearly have a responsibility to keep their networks clean from disinformation. Even so, a lot of disinformation reaches ordinary citizens. I think actually we all have a responsibility to think twice before we give credence to what we see, read or share. [From 2:54:30] "
Today Programme 04/11/19
In The News, 4 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"Increased refugee flows, weather threats, and declining food security will deepen tensions already being exploited to divide and weaken the U.S. and its allies. "
How Climate Change Will Help China And Russia Wage Hybrid War
In The News, 1 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"“China is targeting specific individuals,” she said. “This is not just blunt force, but they have a very good idea of who they are looking for, which is completely different to the forms of aggression we have seen in the past. And what’s worrying is that this is happening far beneath the radar.” "
Beijing-linked group ‘hacks into foreign government text messages’
In The News, 1 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"Elisabeth Braw, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, this week published a paper that called for the UK to adopt a Scandinavian-style form of national service.
Her argument is compelling and should be considered by political leaders as an innovative way to improve Britain's resilience and - two generations on from the end of the original era of national service in 1963 - reconnect the public with the idea of serving their country.
Ms Braw looks at how Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland benefit from national service and says the UK could adopt its own model, learning from the Scandinavian experience. "
Sky Views: Bring back national service - but let's do it differently
In The News, 27 October 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military SciencesPages
Partnerships are at the Core of Modern Deterrence
Commentary, 15 October 2019Giedrimas Jeglinskas
How does a state achieve effective deterrence? Lithuania provides an example.
Modern Deterrence, NATO, Defence Management, Defence Policy, Global Security Issues, International Institutions, Land Forces, Military Personnel, Peacekeeping and Peacebuilding, Resilience, Europe
Acting Together: Making Effective Use of Multilateral Deterrence Measures
Commentary, 23 September 2019Tom Burge
Deterrence has become more complicated; a diplomat reflects on the challenges.
Modern Deterrence
An Ambassador for Countering Hybrid Threats
Commentary, 6 September 2019Fredrik Löjdquist
A Swedish ambassador assesses his challenges and responsibilities in fulfilling a trailblazing role for his country.
Modern Deterrence
How can Coordinating Public, Private and People Help Reduce the Impact of a Grey-Zone Incident?
Commentary, 7 August 2019Cate Pye
This article considers how to increase societal and governmental resilience in the UK to reduce the impact of an attack, whatever its nature.
Modern Deterrence, Defence Management, UK, National Security, Resilience, UK Defence
The 2019 Swiss Security Network Exercise: More Than an Exercise
Commentary, 24 May 2019Hans-Jürg Käser and Bernhard Wigger
The Swiss are testing their preparedness for meeting a major terrorist attack.
Modern Deterrence, International Security Studies, Counterinsurgency, Terrorism, Defence Management, Security Policy, International Responses, Global Security Issues, Terrorism, EuropePages
From Schools to Total Defence Exercises: Best Practices in Greyzone Deterrence
RUSI Newsbrief, 15 November 2019Elisabeth Braw
How NATO member states can develop societal resilience to combat modern threats.
Modern Deterrence, NATO, RUSI Newsbrief, Resilience
Competitive National Service: How the Scandinavian Model Can Be Adapted by the UK
Occasional Papers, 23 October 2019Elisabeth Braw
This Occasional Paper examines the Scandinavian model of national service and discusses how it can be adapted by the UK to fit its national security needs and acquaint a wider segment of youth with...
Civil–Military Relations, Modern Deterrence, Occasional Papers, Military Sciences, Defence Management, Defence Policy, UK, Military Personnel, UK Defence
Get Yourself Stress Tested
RUSI Newsbrief, 15 August 2019Elisabeth Braw
Ordinary citizens in Western countries are under-prepared to deal with extended disruptions to power or the internet. To strengthen resilience to greyzone attacks, societies should start stress...
Modern Deterrence, RUSI Newsbrief
The Gathering Storm: As the Baltic States Prepare to Disconnect from the Russian Power Grid, the Kremlin is Ready to ‘Help’
RUSI Newsbrief, 2 August 2019Justinas Juozaitis
With the Baltic states on-track to become independent from centralised Russian control over their power networks, the Kremlin has demonstrated an alarming potential to disconnect them from its power...
Modern Deterrence, RUSI Newsbrief, Russia, Global Security Issues
Delegating Deterrence: Can ‘Privateering’ Help Solve the Cyber Warfare Puzzle?
RUSI Newsbrief, 27 June 2019David Rudd
In an era of great power competition, the UK and its allies may find that one answer to the challenge posed by adversary cyber operations lies in the distant past
Cyber, Modern Deterrence, RUSI NewsbriefPages
Tech innovation: the potential for startup-government collaboration
Events, 10 December 2019General Sir Gordon Messenger and Surevine founder and CEO Stuart Murdoch in conversation with Clifford Chance counsel Josh Fitzhugh.
Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
Tech as a Virtue: Ethical Technology as a Source of Societal Strength
Events, 20 November 2019PUBLIC co-founder and CEO Daniel Korski, in conversation with Jonathan Kewley, Senior Partner and Tech Group Co-Head, Clifford Chance.
Modern Deterrence
Modern Deterrence Conference Autumn 2019
Conference, 13 November 2019Modern Deterrence: Defence and Offence
Modern Deterrence
Foreign investments in cutting-edge tech: pure business or a national security matter?
Events, 25 September 2019Lord (George) Robertson, former NATO Secretary-General and former UK Defence Secretary, and Jenine Hulsmann, Partner, Clifford Chance, in conversation with Simon Nixon, Chief Leader Writer, The Times
Modern Deterrence
The Red Queen Problem: Technology Start-ups and National Security
Events, 12 September 2019RUSI's Modern Deterrence project is pleased to host an executive briefing by Alex van Someren, Managing Director of Amadeus Capital Partners.
Modern DeterrencePages
"'If the West wants to keep aggressive competitors at bay, its societies have to face them with a united front—one that occasionally includes journalists.' "
Loose Lips Sink Democracies?
In The News, 19 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence
"Who is supposed to protect us against it? The government, even if it wanted to hold this collective umbrella over the entire population, wouldn't be able to do that. Social media networks clearly have a responsibility to keep their networks clean from disinformation. Even so, a lot of disinformation reaches ordinary citizens. I think actually we all have a responsibility to think twice before we give credence to what we see, read or share. [From 2:54:30]"
Today Programme 04/11/19
In The News, 4 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"“China is targeting specific individuals,” she said. “This is not just blunt force, but they have a very good idea of who they are looking for, which is completely different to the forms of aggression we have seen in the past. And what’s worrying is that this is happening far beneath the radar.”"
Beijing-linked group ‘hacks into foreign government text messages’
In The News, 1 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"Increased refugee flows, weather threats, and declining food security will deepen tensions already being exploited to divide and weaken the U.S. and its allies."
How Climate Change Will Help China And Russia Wage Hybrid War
In The News, 1 November 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"Elisabeth Braw, head of the RUSI’s Modern Deterrence project, said: “A year before they leave school they receive an invitation for an online assessment. The Government selects the most promising for mental and physical aptitude tests. “If someone really doesn’t want to do it – on grounds of religion and so forth – they can be exempted. “But if it’s just because they don’t want to do it, the Government could theoretically force them to do it anyway.” Her report adds: “Acceptance to the programme brings with it the prestige of having been selected over the rest of the year group and the armed forces have the complete cohort for selection, which gives them access to a far wider talent pool than an all-volunteer system.”"
Tech-savvy teens 'should be conscripted into armed forces to boost our defences'
In The News, 25 October 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
A New Direction for EU Sanctions: The New Commission and the Use of Sanctions
NATO and the ‘Disruptive’ French President
We Should Exempt Africa from the UK-Russia Geopolitical Confrontation