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In an age of hybrid, grey zone, 4th generation or threshold warfare, our defence cannot exist solely of armed forces. Governments, business and civil society should also work together to strengthen our resilience against existing and emerging threats. Together with the armed forces’ capabilities, such societal resilience can function as a crucial deterrent.
Countries in Europe and North America have, over generations, developed impressive deterrence by means of military punishment. But the emergence of hybrid warfare, where threats and attacks are directed at the private sector and civil society at large, puts countries a situation where deterrence by military punishment is not enough. What is needed, then, is modern deterrence: a combination of traditional military deterrence by military punishment and deterrence by societal resilience.
During the Cold War, Scandinavian countries developed the concept of Total Defence, in effect an early version of modern deterrence. Today those countries, and to some extent the Baltic states, maintain partial versions of total defence. No country has, however, developed a complete modern deterrence model. It is imperative that we do so.
The Modern Deterrence project’s research -- informed by practitioners – aims to generate a new body of knowledge that will be vital to governments, the private sector and civil society. It also serves as hub where practitioners from these sectors exchange best practices and new ideas.
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The 2019 Swiss Security Network Exercise: More Than an Exercise
Commentary, 24 May 2019
Hans-Jürg Käser and Bernhard Wigger
The Swiss are testing their preparedness for meeting a major terrorist attack.
Tags: Modern Deterrence, International Security Studies, Counterinsurgency, Terrorism, Defence Management, Security Policy, International Responses, Global Security Issues, Terrorism, Europe
Second Strike Communications
RUSI Newsbrief, 17 May 2019
Elisabeth Braw
To counter disinformation campaigns, liberal democracies should focus on second-strike capabilities.
Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences, Domestic Security, National Security, Technology
"Jonathan Freedland compares the drive to attract more women into intelligence and cybersecurity today to the recruitment of women at Bletchley Park during World War Two.
Featuring Elisabeth Braw. "
Women in Intelligence and Cybersecurity
In The News, 14 May 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"Late last month, as troops at Fort Bragg, the United States’ largest military base, were conducting a deployment exercise, the power went out. For hours, the 50,000-odd soldiers and officers at the base struggled to carry on with their work, the inconvenience compounded by the fact that they had no idea what had happened. "
We must learn what to do if the lights go out
In The News, 10 May 2019The civilian population needs training in how to respond to cyberattacks on infrastructure
Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"As online attacks blur the lines, the future may be perpetual conflict.
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Can Courts Clear the Fog of War?
In The News, 30 April 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"To secure itself, the West needs to figure out where all its gadgets are coming from. Here’s why that’s so difficult. "
The Manufacturer’s Dilemma
In The News, 27 April 2019 Tags: Modern DeterrencePages
The 2019 Swiss Security Network Exercise: More Than an Exercise
Commentary, 24 May 2019Hans-Jürg Käser and Bernhard Wigger
The Swiss are testing their preparedness for meeting a major terrorist attack.
Modern Deterrence, International Security Studies, Counterinsurgency, Terrorism, Defence Management, Security Policy, International Responses, Global Security Issues, Terrorism, Europe
NATO's National Resilience Obligations
Commentary, 15 March 2019Madeleine Moon
NATO’s mutual defence guarantees are well-known. But less known is the duty which the Alliance’s member-states have to improve their national resilience.
Modern Deterrence, Defence Policy, UK, UK Defence, Europe
Resilience of Necessity in the Baltics
Commentary, 31 January 2019Ojars Eriks Kalnins
The fact that the three Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia managed to establish, lose, and restore their sovereign statehood during the 20th Century is no guarantee they will be able to preserve it in the 21st. But it gives them a heads up when facing the multiple hybrid security threats that they and other European states must contend with these days.
Civil–Military Relations, Modern Deterrence, NATO
Modern Deterrence and Societal Resilience
Commentary, 10 January 2019Toby Harris
Security and resilience have to be designed into society’s fabric.
Modern Deterrence, Defence Policy, UK, Resilience, UK Defence, Europe
Have We Outsourced Our Preparations for a Hostile Attack?
Commentary, 6 December 2018Ruth Smeeth
An MP’s plea for a broader and more inclusive public debate about the security threats facing the UK.
Modern Deterrence, UK, Domestic Security, Resilience, EuropePages
Second Strike Communications
RUSI Newsbrief, 17 May 2019Elisabeth Braw
To counter disinformation campaigns, liberal democracies should focus on second-strike capabilities.
Modern Deterrence, RUSI Newsbrief, Military Sciences, Domestic Security, National Security, Technology
Modern Deterrence: Preparing for the Age of Grey-Zone Warfare
RUSI Newsbrief, 5 November 2018Elisabeth Braw
Modern deterrence is concerned with how countries employ their resilience potential to deter today’s hybrid threats, especially through the involvement of the private sector and civil society. New...
Modern Deterrence, RUSI Newsbrief, Domestic Security, Securing Britain, UK Defence
Countering malicious use of social media
Events, 18 June 2019Jānis Sārts, Director, NATO StratCom Centre of Execellence, will explore the risks around the dissemination of personal information online, and give his solutions on how to counter it.
Modern Deterrence
Modern Deterrence Conference 2019
Conference, 29 May 2019The Modern Deterrence Spring 2019 Conference will examine how the private sector, government and the armed forces can work together to deter hybrid warfare.
Modern Deterrence
The New Cyber Arms Race
Events, 2 April 2019At this event Mikko Hypponen will examine the new cyber arms race - beyond what we're already experiencing - and explain what it means for governments, companies and anybody using a computer.
Modern Deterrence
The Case for a National Defence Course
Events, 21 March 2019This executive briefing by Lt Gen (ret) Arto Räty, former Director Finland’s National Defence Course, will discuss Finland's successful National Defence Course and how it can be adapted by other...
Modern Deterrence
Resilience training: how to involve the population in resilience and national security?
Events, 6 March 2019An executive briefing by Madeleine Moon MP, member of the UK Parliament Defence Committee and the newly elected President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.
Modern DeterrencePages
"Jonathan Freedland compares the drive to attract more women into intelligence and cybersecurity today to the recruitment of women at Bletchley Park during World War Two. Featuring Elisabeth Braw. "
Women in Intelligence and Cybersecurity
In The News, 14 May 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"Late last month, as troops at Fort Bragg, the United States’ largest military base, were conducting a deployment exercise, the power went out. For hours, the 50,000-odd soldiers and officers at the base struggled to carry on with their work, the inconvenience compounded by the fact that they had no idea what had happened."
We must learn what to do if the lights go out
In The News, 10 May 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"As online attacks blur the lines, the future may be perpetual conflict. "
Can Courts Clear the Fog of War?
In The News, 30 April 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence, Military Sciences
"To secure itself, the West needs to figure out where all its gadgets are coming from. Here’s why that’s so difficult."
The Manufacturer’s Dilemma
In The News, 27 April 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence
"(In the Godfather) there’s a useful lesson here for western governments’ cyber defenders, who are under extreme pressure to thwart the attacks directed at their countries and to do so without escalating the aggression. Escalation could lead to cyber wars spilling over into traditional military violence. Counter-attacks also risk revealing a country’s cyber capabilities to the adversary in question. But by sending individual perpetrators a “horse head” message, countries can show their skills and intent without incurring such risks."
What ‘The Godfather’ can teach us about fighting cyber attacks
In The News, 24 April 2019 Tags: Modern Deterrence
The 2019 Swiss Security Network Exercise: More Than an Exercise
Morocco’s Strategy in Africa: Rooting Back
The Russian Ambassador who Overreached: Why Russia’s Approach to Belarus Could Change