Sam Cranny-Evans

A recent report published by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and Open Source Centre estimated that Russian artillery attacks are responsible for some 70 per cent of Ukrainian casualties. Their research revealed that Russia's rate of artillery fire has averaged roughly 10,000 rounds per day since the early months of the war which saw peaks as high as 36,000 rounds per day. By contrast, Ukrainian fire rarely exceeded 6,000 and dropped below 1,800 rounds per day by early 2024.

Of course, there’s appeal in fleeing from reality to the grotesque circus of politics. But if we can’t face facts, others will force us. This month, at the Wilson Center in DC, Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute and Sam Cranny-Evans of the Open Source Centre presented a chilling analysis of Russian weapons manufacturing and supply chains. The slideshow featured satellite photos of munitions factories where freshly cleared tracts of land are being readied to produce more weapons. Vladimir Putin is preparing for a vast war. China’s arms production is on a wartime footing. They are not playing.

“[Recruitment of foreign fighters] is a common trait of Russian warfare,” said Sam Cranny-Evans, associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute think tank. “If we look at their deployment to Syria, the Russian force footprint was quite small and they brought proxies from Syria, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon — as well as Wagner — to do a lot of the fighting. The same occurred in Ukraine in 2014-15, where they used the Luhansk and Donetsk militias more than their own forces. The Russians are broadly trying to spare the population the worst effects of the war through various means.”