Urban Coningham

​​​​Urban Coningham, Research Fellow and Course Lead at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told MailOnline that while ceasefire negotiations appear 'off the table' at present, Sinwar's death could ultimately catalyse the US into pressuring Israel into agreeing a ceasefire deal. 'The biggest change we could see ... may be enhanced US pressure on Netanyahu to 'take the win' and return to the negotiating table in order to bring about a ceasefire,' he said. 'Sinwar's death could therefore be the closest that Israel has come to achieving their publicised goals of the conflict in Gaza. The US will pressure Netanyahu to take this victory and to begin de-escalating in Gaza, which could lead to ceasefire talks resuming. This comes with the caveat that as US elections less than a month away, it is uncertain how willing Biden will be to place this sort of pressure on Netanyahu. While Netanyahu's government will immediately benefit from the spectacle of killing Sinwar, Hamas will feel monumental ramifications in the days to come.

Urban Coningham, a research fellow and Middle East specialist at Rusi, said there is an emerging school of thought that Israel’s battlefield successes could prod Tehran into accepting a ceasefire, albeit one of uncertain longevity: “This does point to the idea that there is the potential of essentially punishing Hezbollah, and through that punishing Iran into a position where they have to take a peace or a ceasefire. But whether that ceasefire is lasting is very unlikely.”

Urban Coningham, a research fellow and Middle East specialist at the Rusi think-tank in London, said: “Iran has shown itself to be pretty pragmatic when it comes to regional security and preserving its interests in the region. It has a long record of delegating and displacing conflicts so that they happen outside Iranian soil."