Southern Lebanon: Fragile Prospects for Lasting Stability

Urban Coningham, Research Fellow and Course Lead at RUSI said: “The ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, effective from 27 November 2024, has largely succeeded in halting sustained conflict between the IDF and Hezbollah, which had caused widespread destruction in Lebanon and Israel while destabilising neighbouring states. However, vague agreement terms, limited political will, and poor coordination among monitoring parties have led to violations. On 26 January, Lebanese sources alleged that IDF troops fired on Lebanese civilians returning to border villages after Israel extended the ceasefire unilaterally (though later ratified by Lebanon). IDF forces also are alleged to have destroyed UNIFIL infrastructure, civilian homes, and farmland, preventing Lebanese citizens from returning. Israel claims Hezbollah remains active south of the Litani River, primarily relocating military stockpiles northward. Meanwhile key external monitoring committee members, the US and France, clearly prioritise the ongoing degradation of Hezbollah’s strategic capacity, in order to curb Iran’s influence in the region and Hezbollah’s influence over Lebanon, over the enforcing of the terms of the ceasefire.”