Opinion: Why did Israel miss so many warnings of the Hamas attack? Here’s one answer

Hard-headed governments regularly miscalculate the risks of their most provocative acts. In February 2022, Vladimir Putin decided — probably on his own — to invade Ukraine, an operation he assumed would take 10 days, according to research by the Royal United Services Institute, a British security think tank. Almost two years later, nearly half a million troops from both sides are dead or injured, over 11 million people are displaced and the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest.