Israel would be compelled to respond if Iran had direct involvement in Hamas attack

Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said intelligence assessment is about planning contingencies against the most likely course of action and also the most dangerous. "The fact that this took everyone by surprise means there is uncertainty as to what the most likely trajectory is," he said. "But the most dangerous is that this is the first phase in an escalating conflict involving other actors including Iran and Hezbollah and so those are contingencies against which steps are being taken to deter further escalation because it has to be planned against irrespective of whether that is actually what is likely to transpire."