The Most Important U.S. Election in a Generation

Key points in the report:

• The US presidential election will have significant consequences for the future of NATO and European security, with the potential for major differences depending on the outcome.
   
• Harris will likely offer more continuity with the current Biden administration's policy towards NATO and Ukraine. However, European allies should be prepared for the possibility that the US may shift more resources and attention to the Asia-Pacific region, given China's ambitions and influence.
   
• A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty and potentially a dramatic shift in US NATO policy. Trump's long-standing scepticism toward the alliance, along with influence from advisors who share this view, could lead to a significant weakening of the US' role in European security.
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  Harris has assured Europe of her and the US' commitment to European security. Therefore, European states will have few incentives to take the necessary steps to adapt to an increasingly uncertain security situation.
   
• With Trump in the White House, Europeans might experience the security alliance with the U.S. thrown into chaos, and thus be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security.
   
• The UK's new Labour government, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has expressed an approach that puts "NATO first" and seeks to "reset" relations with Europe. They are conducting a strategic defence review to assess future security needs in light of the changing geopolitical landscape. In this, the outcome of the US election is a crucial factor.
   
• Norway and other Nordic countries must prepare for reduced US military presence in Europe regardless of who wins the election. This makes it necessary for Europe to take on more responsibility for defence and for closer cooperation among allies, including increased defence budgets and the integration of military forces.

Read the report