Syria
Analysts point to signifiers like the removal of valuable military hardware from Syria, Russia's suspension of wheat exports to Syria — over the past years, it has been Syria's main supplier — and HTS' refusal of Russian offers of humanitarian aid. They also say that wherever the Russian naval vessels from Tartus eventually end up will be an important indicator of where Russia is headed next — especially if the ships dock at the Libyan port of Tobruk. Right now, it's all just speculation, according to Jalel Harchaoui, a political scientist and expert on Libya at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, or RUSI, in the UK. Whether the Russians stay in Syria or go, there are certain incontrovertible facts that will change how they operate in Syria, he told DW. "They're never going to be able to stay with the same level of comfort, security and assurance as before," Harchaoui said. "They're going to have trouble guaranteeing their own logistics, electricity, water, food. They also know that when you run a [foreign] base you need a certain friendliness from the community around you and also the state, in terms of intelligence sharing. All of that is now lost."
