War in Ukraine
The Ukrainian Government has been effectively telegraphing that they've been planning a major offensive to retake large areas of the south, particularly around Kherson, for several months now. Although, interestingly, over the last couple of weeks, they'd started to pour cold water on the idea of a full offensive. It's worth remembering that Ukraine has been extremely capable in shaping the information environment around this war since February. Clearly they are trying to keep the Russians guessing...
