Iran seems to have badly miscalculated the risks Israel are willing to take, as unspoken rules and deterrents ripped up

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel. "But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis - and Netanyahu in particular - are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created," he said. "The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won't risk direct war on behalf of its partners. So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?"