US President Donald Trump’s First 50 Days

In theory, a cursory review of Trump’s first 100 days in his first administration, in early 2017, should offer a preview for Trump 2.0. Back then, he boasted that he achieved more in that short period than any other president had done in their entire term of office. In fact, that entire term was full of turmoil, with regular policy reversals, rapid firing and hiring of senior staff, driven by no clear strategy about his plan for the country (even if it existed on paper). While the Covid-19 pandemic may have shifted the focus, even that did not alter his behaviour too much. Remember Trump’s exhortation to inject bleach into our bodies? The 6 January 2021 attempted insurrection was perhaps the last gasp of that first Trump era.

For those who expected more of the same this time around, they were mistaken. Today, we mark the end of Trump’s first 50 days of his second administration, and we are witnessing a frenzied pace of activity – a Trump on steroids working in double-time – surrounded by like-minded and equally determined acolytes who are hell bent on dismantling the ‘deep state’ and changing the global chessboard in profound ways. They have had four years to plan, and this time they will not be stymied by the bureaucracy. With a bigger mandate than he had in his first administration, and control of all the levers of government (not just the White House but also Congress and the Supreme Court), Trump appears unstoppable. Here, he is bolstered by an opposition party that is in complete disarray, and has not yet rallied around a strategy or a new leader.

Around the globe, our heads are spinning due to upheavals at home and abroad. In the US, Trump has authorised Elon Musk and his DOGEy-teenage minions to dynamite the bureaucracy, supposedly to recoup billions of dollars from waste, fraud and abuse (and to counter wokery). Within days, they mostly dismantled America’s premier development agency, USAID. They have fired not just diversity, equity and inclusion officials but air traffic controllers, medics who treat military veterans, nuclear safety officials, and the very people – inspector generals – tasked to prevent waste, fraud and abuse.

While Musk et al are squealing with delight, a lot of angry Americans are making their voices heard. Don’t forget, the two million civil servants work in all 50 states, and 30% of these are veterans, who tend to generate much more sympathy from the public than the rest of the civil service. Overseas, the Chinese are also elated, and are already offering employment for fired US scientists. On Thursday, 6 March 2025, Musk was reined in a bit by Trump, likely due to the hostility directed at Republican members of Congress in their town halls.

The Trump team has also been sending illegal immigrants packing, as promised, and thousands have been returned, some even in chains. Others have been released due to lack of space in detention facilities or because their countries of origin won’t take them back. Far more have gone into hiding. Illegal border crossings from the Mexican border have slowed to a trickle: the threats are having a deterrent effect. Of course, there has been push-back, court cases and reversals on all these actions, and we can expect much more.

The same enthusiasm has been applied overseas. Trump deserves much of the credit for the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which came about in mid-January 2025, days before the inauguration, due to senior advisers from both Biden and Trump teams working in tandem. He also deserves overall credit for changing the conversation on Ukraine, shifting it to more detailed discussions about ending the war, as opposed to what new weapons systems to supply to Ukraine.

Yet, we are still a long way from sustainable agreements for both conflicts. His current proposal for Gaza (displacing all Palestinians and taking over the Strip) and Ukraine (ceding to all Russia’s demands, while cutting off intelligence support to Ukraine that has been vital in protecting innocent civilians from incoming Russian missiles) are not likely to lead to sustainable peace in either case.

Other announcements have surprised (and perhaps shocked) even his most ardent supporters, notably his imperial aspirations for Greenland, Panama and Canada. He is taking on America’s top trade partners all at once with his favourite word: tariffs. The threats, u-turns, delays and action have all caused market turmoil, leading to concern at home about higher prices. With Mexico and Canada, Trump is even sidestepping the deal he made in his first administration with his US–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which was negotiated to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. China and the EU are ready to respond in kind, and have been preparing for this moment for at least a year. On 7 March, he even threatened Russia with tariffs, an empty threat given there is almost no trade with Russia.

Trump has also threatened NATO countries that are not yet spending 2% on defence that he will not comply with Article 5 to protect them if they are attacked. That, along with his vindictive behaviour towards Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, has propelled the EU, Canada and the UK into heightened action to bolster their joint defences. Necessary reforms won’t happen overnight, but Trump has succeeded in getting these countries to take their own defence far more seriously than has any US administration of the past few decades.

The first 50 days have certainly been a whirlwind of activity, but have they achieved all the success he has boasted about, this time, claiming greater accomplishments than even George Washington?

In some areas he has chalked up wins – a much smaller bureaucracy, the slowdown at the southern border, serious pledges by NATO partners to increase defence spending, possible ceasefires, and a return of plastic straws. Of course, any of these can be reversed, though it is unlikely the US courts will overturn all his firing decisions nor is it clear if he will respect decisions that go against him.

On the negative side of the ledger, he has seriously undermined the Transatlantic Alliance, one that has kept Europe and North America safe since the end of the Second World War. Cutting off all support for Ukraine will only serve to embolden Russia and possibly put other European countries in Russia’s cross-hairs in the near future, once Putin has had time to re-arm. If America is no longer a reliable ally, other countries – notably Russia and China – will be more than delighted to offer their services. Tariffs on friends and foe alike, if they are fully applied, will be incredibly disruptive not just for the global economy, but specifically for Americans, and could drive inflation even higher.

Trump thrives on the 24-7 attention and on keeping everyone guessing, especially now that he is doing it both at home and overseas. He is also acting on his promise to end much of American spending overseas – whether for global disease surveillance systems or for deterrence in Europe (soon, the same might apply for Japan and South Korea). It is not clear if he fully understands that if America withdraws financial assistance everywhere, all at once, he will no longer be able to dictate policy. It is axiomatic that if you pay, you have a say, which also means the opposite applies.

We are only 50 days in, yet if Trump is able to sustain this pace of change, the next four years will surely be action-packed.

The best case scenario: Trump achieves important foreign policy successes, which would be good for everyone. All credit to him if Israelis and Palestinians can agree on a lasting peace and a two-state solution, or if the Ukrainians and Russians come to a good-enough settlement that doesn’t sacrifice Ukraine’s sovereignty or desire to stay in the Western democratic camp.

The worst case: there is no method in his madness, and he does not seal any of these deals. If that happens, at some point in the near future, people will simply tire of all the policy reversals, empty promises, threats and swagger, and they will change the channel. For Trump, a reality TV star, that would be his worst nightmare.

© RUSI, 2025.

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