Ramaphosa’s Russia Flirtation Imperils More Than South Africa’s Image

‘Quite remarkable’, noted a South African-based Western diplomat about the difficulty Washington experienced in attending the recent Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) exhibition at the moment that a Neustrashimy-class Russian frigate and a support ship docked at the Simon’s Town naval base.

He’s wrong, of course. It was quite predictable based on recent form. 

Now, under the cover of the goodwill generated by the Government of National Unity (GNU), the African National Congress (ANC) is deepening its ties with the autocratic world, doubling down on its friendship with Russia and Iran.

The departure from office of International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor and the appointment of Ronald Lamola – seen as less of an ideological hardliner – was taken to usher in a reset of South Africa’s alignment with autocrats, a posture which was beginning to seriously risk the country’s ties with major trading partners in the West.

But, after a period of toned-down rhetoric, the hardliners in the ANC appear to have found their footing and are now driving a return to alignment with Russia and a more partisan approach to the Middle East.

The symbolism is hard to ignore. The docking of the Pennant no. 772 frigate, the eponymous lead ship of the Neustrashimy class, occurred even as Russia continued with its violent colonisation of Ukraine amid continued global criticism. The largest and most modern anti-submarine warfare frigate in the Russian Navy, the Neustrashimy has been employed extensively on defence diplomacy missions, including off Somalia and to Cuba and Venezuela.

The frigate is said to be in South African waters for the South African Navy Festival. In the midst of global isolation and sanctions, this represents a strong statement of support from South Africa and threatens to reawaken the criticism which followed the docking of the Russian munitions ship Lady R under the cover of darkness and for purposes that remain shrouded in murk at the naval base at the end of 2022.

Now there are rumours of a repeat flying visit – quite literally – by Tupolev Tu-160s ‘White Swans’ following their no-show at the AAD, as part of a boost to BRICS diplomacy later this month. The Tu-160s, which visited South Africa in October 2019, have been responsible for the launching of cruise missiles in Ukraine, and its airmen are regarded by Kyiv as war criminals. 

The flirtation with Russia is set to go up a gear when Putin – now the chairman of BRICS – hosts a summit in Kazan, Russia, from 22–24 October. The choice of Kazan as host city is no doubt informed by the fact that it is a substantial distance from the Ukrainian frontline and will not be disturbed by the sound of missiles, drones or artillery, creating the illusion that Russia is at peace.

This normalisation of an autocratic state which is the author of the world’s gravest act of war since 1945 represents a low point for BRICS, which attempts to cast itself as a pragmatic alliance.

Putin must be positively beaming at the prospect of lording it over BRICS following his humiliating virtual attendance at the South African summit the previous year, saying:

‘On January 1, Russia was passed the baton of the BRICS chairmanship, an association which, according to the decision adopted by the 15th BRICS Summit in August 2022, now includes 10 countries. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates joined BRICS as new full members which is a strong indication of the growing authority of the association and its role in international affairs.’

Putin is counting on ‘the growing authority of the association’ to lend legitimacy to his invasion of Ukraine and his continued support of malign military regimes and autocrats in Africa.

Onlookers should brace themselves for an outpouring of Orwellian doublespeak as Russia projects itself as the standard-bearer of freedom and peace. 

Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov has already mastered the art, saying:

‘I would like to point out that BRICS cooperation in the field of politics and security is free of ideological bias and double standards but is based on respect for the sovereignty of member states and the principle of non-interference in their domestic affairs.’

This from a country which is firing missiles into the cities of its neighbour, Ukraine, and occupying its territory. Ushakov continued:

‘BRICS members are committed to settling differences and disputes through dialogue and consultations and support all efforts that facilitate the peaceful resolutions of crises. We seek to contribute to strengthening the system of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and jointly stand for preventing the deployment of weapons and an arms race in space.’

Russia, apparently, is the world’s best hope for global peace.

An interesting new term is now in use by Ushakov and others. They speak of BRICS forming part of the ‘global majority’. It’s a curious way of describing this group of countries, some of which actively suppress citizens and hold sham elections which do not reflect the true feelings of their domestic majorities, while others don’t hold elections at all.

The ANC may have lost its domestic majority, but identifies with this ‘global majority’ and engages in its own doublespeak.

At the UN, President Cyril Ramaphosa said:

‘Today democracy flourishes in South Africa. We have a progressive constitution, an entrenched human rights culture and strong institutions. We have laws to advance equality, and programmes to protect society’s most marginalized.’

The ANC is deliberately ignoring that it is in a power-sharing arrangement with parties which do not share its infatuation with Vladimir Putin. The payback for this friendship appears significant enough for it to ignore the global implications and the strains this places on the GNU. 

The GNU has reinstated a measure of confidence in South Africa’s overall direction. But this is fragile, and could easily be undone by reckless international politicking. Cosying up to Russia and other autocratic countries not only risks South Africa’s trade and investment ties with the West, but may also conceivably leave Pretoria open to international legal action, or even military action should Ukraine wish to widen its strikes against its invader. 

Anyone for a sea-drone in Simon’s Town? 

At the end of October, Ramaphosa will find himself in Kazan. The BRICS summit represents an excellent opportunity for him to double down on the GNU in favour of democracy, human rights and strong institutions. Don’t hold your breath. 

The views expressed in this Commentary are the authors’, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.

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