The likelihood of a second referendum designed to reverse the first referendum’s decision (as in the Republic of Ireland in 2009) remains very low in the UK, so the Brexit verdict seems irreversible. It also appears certain that the new prime minister, Theresa May, will eventually trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, likely in September or October.
The ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the dispute with the Philippines over sovereignty claims in the South China Sea (SCS) went against China. Immediately China labelled the tribunal as ‘law abusing’, calling the decision ‘ill founded’. Although expected, the reaction is yet another indication that sovereignty is increasingly becoming part of Chinese ‘core interest’ on which...
With a new ruler certain to take up power in 2009, North Korea’s state will undergo substantial changes in substance and in form. The international community must pay close attention to the ongoing palace drama in Pyongyang and ready themselves to deal with the strategic and humanitarian consequences of such changes.
RUSI Director Michael Clarke, speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Westminster Hour, suggests that Gordon Brown has the chance to bring European powers together as they readjust to the forthcoming Obama administration.