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US forces deliver fresh water to Rwandan refugees in Zaire, August 1994

The Policy Value of Quantitative Atrocity Forecasting Models

Sascha Nanlohy, Charles Butcher and Benjamin E Goldsmith
RUSI Journal, 9 May 2017
United Nations, Law and Ethics, Peacekeeping and Peacebuilding
Quantitative models allow policymakers to effectively identify which areas are most at risk of mass atrocities.

It is time to integrate quantitative atrocity forecasting more directly and systematically into the foreign policy processes of middle and major powers interested in preventing these terrible but all too common events. Sascha Nanlohy, Charles Butcher and Benjamin E Goldsmith discuss the potential utility of relatively reliable mid-to-long-term forecasts, using a number of examples to illustrate the main points.

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