In The News 13 June - 17 June

14 June 2016

Op-Ed

Islamic State 'likely to strike region in summer’

“If we saw an attack somewhere in Southeast Asia that is seen as being inspired, linked or maybe even directed by IS.”

Raffaello Pantucci for South China Morning Post, June 11

States seek solutions to deal with cyber threat

Singapore's impending move to delink civil service computers from the Internet has drawn flak, but is in fact a trend-setting move, as other governments mull over going back to typewriters and analogue systems to protect highly sensitive information.

Jonathan Eyal in The Straits Times 13 June

Terror threat grows more random by the day

The fact that Orlando is the first attack of its kind outside the Middle East, therefore, is not for any lack of will on the part of Isis. It underlines the random way in which “lone actor” jihadists now pick their targets.

Raffaello Pantucci in The Times, 14 June

Mentions in the Media

NATO

NATO chief: 4 battalions going to Baltic states, Poland

Deterrence of the Russians will be more in the assurance that if they were to attack, they would come into contact with NATO forces almost immediately, and that therefore the Russians should not doubt NATO's determination to fight.

Jonathan Eyal for ABC News, June 13

Also for Fox News, June 13

Also for Times Republican, June 14

China and the Pacific

Wheel within wheels: China vs India

No question that India has to be very careful in evaluating the situation. It can't be expected to come running and join the Chinese bandwagon but has made it clear that it is keeping the options open. Some of the Asian neighbours have liked the project as a good opportunity for a large flow of Chinese investment that India cannot match. So it can't be seen actively hostile to it for losing strategic support in the region.

Shashank Joshi for The Financial Express, June 11

China keeps close eye on Malabar exercises

Shashank Joshi, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London observed that it is normal for naval forces to watch an adversary’s exercise, typically at a safe distance, and particularly so when three adversaries are exercising together. “What's unusual about this is not the surveillance, but the intrusion into Japanese territorial waters,” he said.

Shashank Joshi for The Hindu 16 June

Euro 2016 Security

France's Euro 2016 Challenges

Hooliganism is a threat. We have clearly seen football fans or individuals who have support these teams and are dedicated to them and there is usually an unfortunate hard core who will resort to violence. We saw rioting in the World Cup last time in France. And we saw, you know, particularly rioting in Marseille where the British fans got out of hand when they team was playing there. This is not unprecedented. But a lot of work has gone in to deal with the problem of hooliganism. It is not uniform across the union. But the member states are trying to police their fans.

Raffaello Pantucci for CNN Newsroom, June 10

Migration Crisis and People Trafficking

Tracking traffickers

Their [traffickers] networks involve up to 25 layers of intermediaries and facilitators, among them an ever-changing cast of lorry drivers, travel agents, money changers, people with access to safe houses and fishermen, along with bribeable officials, soldiers and police officers.

Peter Roberts in The Economist, 18 June

‘Europe really does protect our fundamental rights’

Britain’s Coastguard Agency currently relies greatly on the French as was highlighted recently by the rescue of migrants in the English Channel. Britain has only four patrol vessels for its 7,700 miles of coastline. The Royal United Services Institute and the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory say France has “20 times the number of resources per kilometre of coast”.

The Irish World, 16 June

Counter-Terrorism

IS likely to target Southeast Asia in coming months

Raffaello Pantucci, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said he wouldn’t be surprised “if we saw an attack somewhere in Southeast Asia that is seen as being inspired, linked or maybe even directed by IS”.

Raffaello Pantucci in The Dhaka Tribune 12 June

Somalia: Yet another setback for AU’s peace efforts

The political imperative to take the fight to Al-Shabaab during 2014 and 2015, Al-Shabaab’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances, Amisom’s various international problems and the weakness of the Somali National Army combined to leave the AU mission overstretched: unable to hold the newly recovered settlements while simultaneously conducting offensive operations.

Paul Williams in The Herald,15 June

RUSI Events

Don't want to Leave but hate the idea of Remain? I have the ideal solution

When this referendum ends, the Prime Minister’s work begins. He tried with his “renegotiation”. An honourable failure. But his heart was in the right place. He took the first step on a long journey.

Lord Saatchi at RUSI, The Telegraph, 14 June