Ukraine is understandably focused on maintaining Western support, but it needs a narrative that appeals to others – those who can otherwise easily dismiss the conflict as a ‘Western war’. While it has a pretty compelling pitch, so far Kyiv has not managed to cut through at the political level in Africa, writes Greg Mills, who has just returned from his sixth visit to Ukraine of 2022 – this time accompanying the Archbishop of Cape Town, His Grace Thabo Makgoba.
Despite its isolation elsewhere, Russia has maintained a level of global diplomatic support in the developing world, including in Africa – historically the largest regional beneficiary of Western aid.
Indeed, Kyiv acknowledges that it has fallen behind Russia in winning diplomatic support for its cause in Africa. This much can be clear in the limited support of African countries for Ukraine in various UN General Assembly votes since 24 February 2022.
In the first, on 2 March 2022 – on a resolution condemning the Russian aggression – 28 African states voted in favour, one (Eritrea) voted against, 17 abstained, and eight were not in the room. While a majority of African states voted for the resolution, the number who sat on the fence or avoided the vote was substantial.
The result of the second resolution on 24 March – on the humanitarian consequences of the war – was much the same, with 26 voting with Ukraine, one (again, Eritrea) against, and 20 abstaining. Six states were not in the room.
This changed slightly with the resolution on 7 April to suspend Russia’s membership rights in the Human Rights Council, with the results 10 for, nine against (Algeria, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Congo, Ethiopia, Gabon, Mali, Zimbabwe and again, Eritrea), 24 abstainers and 11 stay-awayers.
The fourth resolution, supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine, saw 29 voting in favour, zero against, 19 abstaining and five staying away – presumably because Africans are equally concerned about the violation of their territorial space, even though they are paradoxically less willing to condemn those that undermine international law in this regard.
Finally, the latest resolution – that of 14 November on Russian reparations for Ukraine –produced results of 16 for, five against (the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mali, Zimbabwe and again, demonstrating its unwavering commitment, Eritrea), 27 abstentions, and five who were not in the room.
The trend would seem to be towards trying not to take sides, no matter the principles at stake. With a vote to establish a special UN war crimes tribunal on the cards, both sides will now be lobbying Africa hard. But Ukraine will have to work that little bit harder.
It is not that Africans lack sympathy for the plight of Ukrainians. A recent poll by the Brenthurst Foundation found that nearly 75% of South Africans believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to be ‘an act of aggression that must be condemned’, despite Pretoria’s fence-sitting on the war. More than 80% said South Africa should offer either military, diplomatic or moral support if a sovereign democratic country is invaded by its neighbour.