Climate Change, Labour Migration, and Violent Extremism Recruitment
The project considers how climate change influences labour migration and recruitment by extremist groups in Tajikistan and assesses vulnerabilities and resilience factors.
The relationship between climate change and violent extremism in Tajikistan is indirect yet noteworthy, primarily influenced by international labour migration. The challenges, displacements and adverse conditions associated with migration can diminish the resilience of certain migrants, increasing their susceptibility to radicalisation and recruitment. Existing literature acknowledges the connection between migration and the potential for radicalisation. Nevertheless, the presence of outdated and incomplete data regarding the current scope of this relationship, the efficacy of countermeasures implemented by the Tajik government, and the specific factors driving radicalisation, including the impact of climate change, remain significant information gaps for policymakers and programme designers.
This project examined the effects of events, particularly Russia's crackdown on Tajik migrants following the Crocus Hall attack in 2024 and increasing migration to Turkey, along with adaptations made by violent extremism organisations. The findings provide updated insights for policymakers and practitioners, guiding interventions on climate security and violent extremism.
This project is funded by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS)
Aims and objectives
The overall objective is to improve the understanding of the links between climate change vulnerability and security, which the Tajik government and other stakeholders can use to strengthen collaboration. It seeks to address knowledge gaps and provide evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and practitioners.
Project findings
The research team conducted 80 interviews between March and May 2025, including with migrants and experts across four regions of Tajikistan and further afield. A full-length report detailing the findings is now available.Â
The key findings include the following:
- Climate change is indirectly driving migration from rural Tajikistan by intensifying pressure on agricultural livelihoods.
 - Migrants originating from rural areas experience heightened cultural shock, economic insecurity, and social isolation in destination countries, increasing their vulnerability to radicalisation.
 - Migration flows to Russia decrease due to the lingering effect of the 2024 crackdown, pushing some Tajik migrants to explore alternative migration routes.
 - Migration destinations often fail to meet the expectations of Tajik labour migrants. Many are unprepared for sometimes discriminatory and exploitative labour environments, and experience frustration and economic precarity. Violent extremist organisations have identified these conditions and actively seek to exploit them.
 - Repressive migration regimes further exacerbate these risks, as systematic abuse of migrants creates an enabling environment for VEO recruitment and influence.
 - Community-led support networks remain an important source of resilience, yet these initiatives currently receive little to no external support.