The Complex Triangle - Migration, Security and Environmental Change

By Elizabeth Deheza, Research Fellow, Climate Change and Security

Environmental changes such as increasing temperatures, coastal erosion, droughts, floods, storms and rising sea levels are altering the socio-political and economic landscape of many countries by heightening existing tensions and placing pressure on already strained resources and governance. These changes may have severe knock-on effects that may threaten the stability and prosperity of states through many mechanisms, one of the most significant of which is migration. This was highlighted in a report released in October 2011 as part of the Migration and Global Environmental Change Foresight Programme from the UK Government Office for Science, which is currently the most in depth analysis of such issues and is built around an outstanding evidence base.

Mexico is a particularly important example where already strong migratory flows are coupled with a high vulnerability to natural disasters and climate changes. Although there is no evidence for a direct link between migration and security it is clear that environmental changes may directly or indirectly drive migration and such fluctuations in the distribution of the population may threaten the security of a country. In Mexico, the drug cartels also have a major role in the security landscape and are not immune to the effects of environmental changes. Migration due to environmental changes will also impact the cartels as it results in the movement of potential customers, employees and victims, leaving the cartels with less people to manipulate, extort, intimidate and sell illegal goods to. This may have serious secondary effects that could even force the cartels themselves to migrate in order to stay in business.

Mexican Drug Cartels

The main goal of most drug cartels is to acquire wealth, either legally or otherwise and they are prepared to use any means necessary to maintain these activities. Primarily, the cartels are involved in the illegal movement of narcotics, mostly towards the US, but this is now being complemented by more diverse criminal activities that range from kidnapping (1,262 incidents in 2010 and 837 up to May 2011), extortion, arms smuggling and music and video piracy among others.[1]

The most powerful cartels are The Sinaloa Cartel, which largely dominates the east of Mexico and Los Zetas, which exert their power in the northern-central and western regions of the country. Then, there are smaller and more fragmented cartels that are either allies or enemies of the aforementioned cartels occupying pockets of territory spread throughout Mexico. Additionally, there are independent cartels which are in an ongoing war against all the others.

Environmental Challenges Facing the Cartels

Despite their power, drug cartels do not escape the impacts of environmental change that have the potential to deepen tensions related to their operations and may ultimately necessitate relocation. Mexico is also one of the largest producers of Marijuana in the world, an industry largely controlled by the cartels. Estimates suggest that cultivation has increased in Mexico from 5,600 hectares in 2005 to 17,500 ha in 2009.[2] Environmental changes are most likely to be felt here as temperatures fluctuate and rainfall patterns are not consistent, potentially reducing crop yields and profits for the cartels. This could exacerbate existing tensions among drug lords and escalate the violence associated with the search for new fields in which to develop illicit plantations.

It is also worth noting that land suitable for agriculture in Mexico is continuously declining due to severe droughts, land deterioration and urbanization (995 square kilometres of agricultural land was converted for urban uses between 1993 and 2000).[3] The availability of good agricultural soil is vital to the drug cartels and a reduction of fertile land poses a problem for Marijuana cultivation. The cartels have already relocated many of their Marijuana-growing operations from areas in the states of Guerrero, Nayalit and Michoacán to remote areas of Durango, Sinaloa and Sonora in Central and Northern Mexico. This has primarily been done to reduce transportation costs to the Northern border and to gain more direct access to drug markets throughout the US. However, this strategic move may soon to be countered as droughts look set to become more common in the North, leaving more arable land in the South of Mexico, far from the lucrative US market.

Drug trafficking transits some of the most important ports of Mexico such as Manzanillo, Mazatlan, Puerto Vallarta, Lázaro Cardenas, Veracruz and Tampico. Most of these drugs are bound for strategic cities located along valuable smuggling corridors on the northern border with the US such as Tijuana, Mexicali, Agua Pietra, Juárez, Nuevo Laredo, Matamoros and Reynosa. Some of these areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of environmental change and extreme weather-related events. For example, an increase in sea level could affect the entire Gulf of Mexico, potentially leaving the ports of Veracruz and Tampico inaccessible and unusable for the cartels. It has been estimated that by 2100 the sea levels in some areas in the Gulf could rise by as much as 1.5 metres. Complicating matters further, the port of Manzanillo in Colima is located inside a seismically active region. This state and parts of Jalisco and Michoacán are important strongholds for drug cartels, and all lie inside the most dangerous seismic zone within Mexico - otherwise known as 'zone D'.

All businesses, legal and illegal, rely upon striking the right balance between supply and demand. We have seen above how the cartel's supply chains may be impacted by environmental changes, but their customer base may also be threatened. Under such circumstances, the cartels could be forced to relocate in search of new strongholds causing a shift in borders between the cartels territories and increasing the potential for inter-cartel conflict, adding more pressure and fear to citizens and entire communities usually caught in the crossfire. 

Opportunities

Environmental change is not all bad news for the cartels and opportunities may arise from new revenue streams by taking advantage of both the environmental conditions and of 'trapped'[4] populations who are particularly vulnerable to the fall-out from natural disasters and environmental changes. 

While flooding is traditionally thought of as disruptive to most business operations, shallow floods from torrential rains have been shown to actually facilitate cross-border smuggling activities as they extend the areas available to transfer goods to the US.[5] The cartels have been quick to adopt innovative strategies to exploit such environmental changes, for example, by using shallow hulled boats to navigate flooded areas where the deeper hulls of the US border patrol vessels could not follow.

A key finding of this year's Foresight Report emphasises the need for policy makers to consider 'trapped' populations of people that do not have the financial means to migrate and are particularly vulnerable to environmental change. This is especially relevant for current analysis as such poverty-stricken people could be prime targets for exploitation by the cartels. People living in informal settlements on the outskirts of Mexico City already have to pay over the odds for private trucks to deliver water into the area.[6] If such practices were to extend to food and energy, life could become very difficult for these disadvantaged people and trapped populations that are unable to migrate as a response to natural disasters or environmental changes.

The relationship between environmental change, migration and security is complex and there is currently sparse evidence to directly support the existence of such a link. Environmental changes can certainly induce temporary or permanent migration, but migration itself does not constitute a direct security threat, rather it acts by heightening existing tensions that could lead to conflict. For the case of the drug cartels in Mexico this is particularly interesting as their operations are affected both by environmental change and by migration.

This commentary is based upon a part of more in-depth research on climate related migration and security in Mexico, which will be released on 17 November 2011 in Mexico City in a partnership between RUSI, GLOBE International, the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and Prof. Erubiel Tirado Cervantes. Read the report here >

NOTES 

[1] Scott Stewart, STRATFOR, New Mexican President Same Cartel War, June 16, 2011.

[2] US Department of State, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, 2011.

[3] Commission for environmental cooperation (CEC, North America), The North American Mosaic: An overview of key environmental issues. 2008.

[4] Foresight Report: Migration and Global Environmental Change, Final Project Report, The Government Office for Science, 'Migration and Global Environmental Change Future Challenges and Opportunities', 2011.

[5] STRATFOR, Mexican Drug Wars Update: Tergeting the Most Violent Cartels. July 21, 2011

[6] Adrián G Aguilar and Flor M Lopez, 'Water Insecurity among the Urban Poor in the Peri-urban Zone of Xochimilco, Mexico City', Journal of Latin American, Geography (Vol. 8, No. 2, 2009).