RUSI Reflects: The US Election Result and Return of President Donald Trump

European NATO countries need to acknowledge that the US government is increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific region, according to RUSI deputy director general Professor Malcolm Chalmers, who also said the UK needed longer procurement planning. Speaking at a UK’s Defence Committee spending hearing days after the UK budget and amid an ongoing Strategic Defence Review (SDR), Chalmers said that there was a feeling UK forces were “hollowed” out.

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank, commented that “the immediate peril” for Ukraine comes from the 2024 U.S. presidential election. “The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November. Any such call would set expectations of a negotiated settlement, with discussions possibly beginning in the early months of 2025,” he said.

The US election poses twin strategic dangers for Ukraine and for European allies. A Trump administration may continue to withhold the support Ukraine needs to win the war.