For all the Sturm und Drang over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, neither side has answered the crucial question the Trump administration faces if it abrogates the deal: ‘And then what?’
Irregular migration, a concept that encompasses a wide range of activities, including people smuggling and human trafficking, has become big business for organised crime networks. The UN estimates that human trafficking alone is the third most profitable crime, after drug and arms trafficking.
Despite the relatively harmonious atmosphere at the last meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, the behind-the-scenes ‘oil war’ between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues.
South Korea’s president recently visited Iran and presented it with a trade-off: realise the full potential of trade and investment with a major Asian economy or maintain illicit military links to North Korea. Iran’s response, while progressive, may have fallen short of her hopes.
As the EU–Turkey deal comes into effect, the likely result will be the emergence of new migratory routes, or the reactivation of older ones, such as the West African Route, which connects various countries to the Spanish Canary Islands.