As Turkey has progressively increased its involvement in the war in Syria, the Iranian leadership’s reaction has been mixed – a result of the different views within Tehran about the future direction of the relationship with Turkey. This internal debate will intensify as the possibility of establishing no-fly zones in Syria has been endorsed by the US.
The coup in Turkey failed because the plotters had no communications strategy and unclear political objectives. While another military coup seems unlikely, if President Erdogan wants to keep support internally and internationally he needs to restrict the retribution against the armed forces.
A dramatic attempt by parts of Turkey’s armed forces to wrest control of the democratically elected government ended in failure after little more than a few hours. But Turkey’s biggest political challenges are only beginning.
As the EU–Turkey deal comes into effect, the likely result will be the emergence of new migratory routes, or the reactivation of older ones, such as the West African Route, which connects various countries to the Spanish Canary Islands.
The latest military agreement between Qatar and Turkey has been a long-time in the making. It is also an expression of dated defence thinking in Gulf states that looks to military purchases and agreements with foreign powers rather than sustainable capacity building.
In cancelling South Stream in exchange for a deal with Turkey, Russia is attempting to maintain the economic benefits of a share of the European gas market whilst steering clear of the sticky political issues that accompany it.