Written by Lord Peter Ricketts, former National Security Adviser and UK Ambassador to France, this Briefing Paper recommends that the UK and France step up joint work on defence, security and nuclear deterrence policy.
France’s newly elected president is now Europe’s hottest political asset. However, despite Emmanuel Macron’s solid electoral victory on Sunday, he remains vulnerable at home, and has yet to consolidate his power.
The first round of France’s presidential elections has shown that populists can be kept at bay. However, although the election of Emmanuel Macron as the likely next head of state will reassure the country’s allies, the reality is that France’s political system is in meltdown.
As the threat from Islamic State evolves, security responses must too. Financial intelligence must continue to play a critical role in identifying and disrupting new threats, in investigating foreign terrorist fighters and prosecuting their supporters.
The likelihood of a second referendum designed to reverse the first referendum’s decision (as in the Republic of Ireland in 2009) remains very low in the UK, so the Brexit verdict seems irreversible. It also appears certain that the new prime minister, Theresa May, will eventually trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, likely in September or October.
A month on, many ‘missed opportunities’ to prevent the Paris attacks on the part of the French intelligence services have come to light. But was this an intelligence failure or the result of the inherent limitations of intelligence?
As the threat from lone-actor and small cell terrorism evolves, this paper examines the financing of both disrupted and successful plots since 2000 in Great Britain, France and Australia. These plots...