Olusegun Obasanjo, Dickie Davis, David Kilcullen and Greg Mills
Voters in Colombia have rejected a landmark peace deal with FARC rebels in a shock referendum result, with 50.2% voting against it. This represents a serious setback – but not a fatal one – to efforts to end one of the modern world’s most prolonged conflicts.
US Treasury has added new sanctions against North Korea for the fourth time this year – a significant increase in the frequency of their application and an indication of a shifting mood in the corridors of Washington
Despite some vocal opposition, Barack Obama now has enough support in the US senate to ensure the Iran nuclear deal is approved. Domestic manoeuvring and foreign interventions characterise the president's success.
Mechanisms for dispute resolution and sanctions ‘snap back’ will be amongst the most important of the new Iran deal. They are also the most difficult to understand, and contain potentially problematic areas of ambiguity.
The deal between Russia and the United States over Syria is more an agreement to disagree rather than a pact between two powers which see eye to eye. But its impact could be profound for Barack Obama's foreign policy legacy.
Critics accuse President Obama of walking into a Russian trap. But even partial implementation of the disarmament plan reduces the likelihood that chemical weapons are used, without foreclosing any American options.
With no clear strategy or set of political objectives, President Obama had set red lines for chemical weapons use in Syria. This has locked him into credibility spiral which was difficult for him to free from, even after a resolution to the chemical weapons question.
President Obama's recent speech on counter-terrorism policy defended drone strikes while suggesting a new determination to close Guantanamo. To undermine the narrative of international terrorists, he must show that force is a less efficient tool than the observance of universal values and the rule of law.
Recent allegations by the Canadian authorities about Al-Qa'ida in Iran has ignited a flurry of commentary. Experience suggests however that the release of limited intelligence of this nature is fraught with dangers for the public trust and risks being counter-productive.