Daesh, Al-Qa’ida and other terrorist organisations may appear to be in current retreat. But rather than being eradicated, they have scattered. The violent extremism they have spawned has not entirely disappeared and understanding how it might evolve is going to be a central preoccupation for security planners.
Since the beginning of armed conflict in Syria and Iraq, thousands of militants from the Caucasus region have participated in the war. However, dislodging Daesh and a collapse of the insurgency in the North Caucasus have substantially diminished the capacities of North Caucasian jihadi groups. Nevertheless, militancy in the region has potential.
The risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan presents dangerous global implications and should be considered as a serious threat, particularly since Pakistan’s acquisition of the short-range Nasr missile. Quite apart from the enormous human cost, there would also be significant environmental and migratory consequences.