Unpacking the MENA Programme

Europe always chose engagement with Iran as its policy, even when it was at odds with the US. Now there are growing signs that Europe might be changing direction. Sanctions have been adopted recently because of protests and deployment of drones [in Ukraine]. There have been statements, especially from Germany's foreign ministry about the fact it can be no longer 'business as usual' with Iran.

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, said that it was hard to know the exact number of people killed. ...Tabrizi said that the protests are likely to continue "for a while."

For many, it’s sequential,” Tobias Borck of the Royal United Services Institute, (RUSI) told The New European, ‘Policymakers feel that, if they can get the nuclear deal done, then they can move on to other things. However, right now, the JCPOA is a bit like Shrodinger’s cat. It might be alive, it might be dead, but no one wants to open the box and check,” Borck said. For the Biden administration, a failure to reinvigorate the deal would mark a crushing policy failure, “For Iran, it’s not much more promising,” Borck continued, “Despite acting with increased belligerence, they know that walking away from the deal risks the full weight of sanctions snapping back. Lastly, looking on, is Europe, which doesn’t really have any alternate policy ideas to the deal.”