Wagner Group and Russia’s Presence in Africa and the Middle East
Exploring how the Wagner Group is seen as a key agent of Russian efforts to carve out a sphere of influence in parts of Africa and of the Middle East.
This project is funded by the Smith Richardson Foundation and will run throughout 2024.
The project will focus on four countries as case studies: Central African Republic, Mali, Mozambique, and Syria. The research will explore why Wagner is becoming increasingly attractive to elites, who preside over ‘shadow’ economies and authoritarian regimes and public opinion holds the group in higher regard in some countries. The project will try to address media speculation and evidence that the Russian government is trying (perhaps even succeeding) to bring the Wagner Group under tighter control, whilst simultaneously reducing its reliance on the organisation by diversifying towards other PMCs.
Aims and objectives
The project seeks to address whether:
- a Russian grand plan to expand influence via Wagner-type organisations can be confirmed;
- efforts to bring Wagner under tighter control are succeeding;
- Wagner’s clients in Central African Republic, Mali, Mozambique, and Syria assess these changes positively or otherwise.
Early findings show that the Wagner model has been experiencing serious issues as a tool of Russian foreign policy and that any plan to carve out a Russian sphere of influence in parts of Africa and of the Middle East through Wagner or similar groups will need a significant overhaul.
