Strategic and Security Aspects of Civil Nuclear Power

Eight decades later another conflict, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has revealed a starkly different state of affairs in the modern supply of nuclear fuels. Just as Europe became dependent on Russian gas, America and some other Nato states have developed a heavy reliance on Russia for the enriched uranium they need to keep their nuclear plants running. Tellingly, the trade was not subject to sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine but western governments and companies are scrambling to fill the gap by rebuilding their own industrial capability, an uncertain process that is expected to take several years. “This is a cautionary tale, not just for the nuclear industry, but energy policy in general,” Darya Dolzikova, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute’s proliferation and nuclear policy programme, said.

As you have mentioned, we have had reports- both from the Ukrainian side and the Russian accusing each other of preparing to attack the Zaporizhzhia power plant in some way. The Ukrainian have since come out saying that threat seems to be decreasing, although not disappearing entirely. At the end of the day, there is no way for us externally to validate any of that information. The IAEA, so the nuclear watch dog, has access to the facility, they have staff on site, and they say they have not found any mines. That should be caveated with the fact they don’t have access across the full facility.

Darya Dolzikova, a nuclear expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, takes a similar view. She formulates more carefully: "A catastrophe on the scale of Chernobyl is extremely unlikely." She also emphasizes the safety precautions. The cooling water supplies from the emergency reserve would "suffice for several months", she analyzed after the blasting of the Kachowka dam , which called into question the regular water supply of the nuclear power plant. The power supply from diesel generators has been proven to bridge power failures for significant periods of time.