Without a Strong Volunteer Reserve, the UK Military Cannot Hope to Compete

The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office has increasingly used sanctions designations to target those involved in undermining the oil price cap. The US – widely considered to be the western world’s most aggressive sanctions enforcer – has relied heavily on this approach. Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin, a research fellow and sanctions specialist at RUSI, says that while tactics such as disruption and designations make circumvention harder for Russia, the UK government is underestimating the value of strong enforcement to act as a deterrent. ‘In the end, we’re just forcing them to another alternative structure or jurisdiction; we’re not necessarily ending that activity,’ he says.

Three years have passed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Are the sanctions imposed by the international community against Russia working? Tom Keating, Director of the Centre for Financial Security at the Royal Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in the United Kingdom, likens sanctions to 'a puncture from which air gradually escapes', pointing out that even if they do not have an immediate effect, they are steadily eroding Russia's technological and economic capabilities.

Analysts point to signifiers like the removal of valuable military hardware from Syria, Russia's suspension of wheat exports to Syria — over the past years, it has been Syria's main supplier — and HTS' refusal of Russian offers of humanitarian aid. They also say that wherever the Russian naval vessels from Tartus eventually end up will be an important indicator of where Russia is headed next — especially if the ships dock at the Libyan port of Tobruk. Right now, it's all just speculation, according to Jalel Harchaoui, a political scientist and expert on Libya at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, or RUSI, in the UK. Whether the Russians stay in Syria or go, there are certain incontrovertible facts that will change how they operate in Syria, he told DW. "They're never going to be able to stay with the same level of comfort, security and assurance as before," Harchaoui said. "They're going to have trouble guaranteeing their own logistics, electricity, water, food. They also know that when you run a [foreign] base you need a certain friendliness from the community around you and also the state, in terms of intelligence sharing. All of that is now lost."