2012 Perspectives

Afghans must take ownership of security in 2012

By John Nagl

With President Obama's decision to reduce troop numbers throughout 2012 in Afghanistan, there will be an urgent emphasis to support Afghan forces fully take charge of their national security.

China 2012: The Year of the Dragon

By Alexander Neill

In 2012, the Asia-Pacific region will not be immune to transition, and China's dominant role will be emphasised in its relationship with Taiwan and the wider region.

Somalia's 2012 Agenda

By Anna Rader

Central Africa and Southern Africa: Elections and Economics

By Knox Chitiyo and Anna Rader

Predictions of a 'sub-Saharan spring' in southern Africa have as yet proved unfounded, but elections in the DRCongo and Zimbabwe are proving to be risky in the current climate of domestic turmoil.

Where do we go From Here?
Transitioning from Dictatorship to Democracy in 2012

By John Esposito

The democratic gains made from the Arab Spring are by no means assured. 2012 will see would-be democracies challenged to respond to and enable an historical transformation from dictatorship to democracy.

Aftershocks and Transitions: an Unashamedly Speculative Look at 2012

By Shashank Joshi

If this year brought us an earthquake, then 2012 will be a year of aftershocks and transitions. Speculate as we might, we must still prepare for the predictable but watch for the surprises.

Eastern Africa: A Regional Stake in Counter-Insurgency

By Anna Rader

Somalia will continue to dominate the 2012 agenda for East African states as the humanitarian impact of famine and ongoing fighting pulls in regional and international actors. Now embroiled in military operations, Kenya also faces a big year for domestic politics.

West Africa: Regional Security Comes to the Fore

By Knox Chitiyo

With fewer elections scheduled for 2012 in West Africa, the emphasis will shift to regional security and dealing with complex security threats. Terrorist groups and local militias are still a major problem, while religious conflict and instability threaten the region's largest economy; Nigeria.